Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
714 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 292 CONTINUES FOR NC COUNTIES THROUGH 9 PM.
MONITORING STORMS MOVING NORTH INTO BERTIE AND NORTHAMPTON
COUNTIES ATTM. BERTIE CELL HAS BEST RADAR SIGNATURE ATTM.
OTW...SCT ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS VA / MD THIS EVENING.
HEAVY RAINERS THE THREAT.

PVS DSCN:
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE NC THRU 9PM. UPR-LVL
CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVR CENTRAL NC WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEWRD THRU
THIS EVNG. CONVECTION HAS HAD TROUBLE DEVELOPING OVR MUCH OF THE
FA THUS FAR THIS AFTN (ASIDE FROM ISO TSTM OVR NORTHERN AREAS) DUE
TO A PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD OVR THE REGION...BUT CLEARING SKIES
ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS SHOWN BY VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LVL IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVR NEXT FEW HRS. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE
TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT...SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS
PWATS ARE AROUND 1.5". MAIN SVR THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINGS. SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS WHILE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. LOWS WILL RANGE IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSTABLE ATM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THU. SOME STRATUS AND
FOG WILL BE PSBL THU MRNG BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS
MRNG. MAIN UPR-LVL S/W WILL PULL NE OF THE AREA BY THU AFTN...BUT
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM S/W MAY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION AS WEAK SFC
BNDRY REMAINS OVR THE AREA. CAPPED POPS AT 40-50% AS MID-LVL MOISTURE
FINALLY DECREASES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. FOR
FRI...UPR-LVL RIDGE BLDS OVR THE EASTERN CONUS LEADING TO MAINLY
DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE MCS
TRAVELING OVR THE RIDGE. TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 80S INLAND...UPR
70S TO LWR 80S OVR THE COAST AND LWR EASTERN SHORE. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPR-LVL HEIGHTS RISE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SAT WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING 90 INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST) SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. A DRY FORECAST WILL BE
MAINTAINED...BUT MCS ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE REGION COULD ROUND THE
FRONT SIDE (NW FLOW REGION) OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH AND CLIP THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON
THE WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL MAINLY HAVE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN THRU THU...AS UPR
LO PRES AREA AND INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. ISLTD IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT AND ERLY THU
MORNG...ESPLY AT PHF/SBY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ERLY MORNG STRATUS AND FOG...SHUD THEN PREVAIL FM FRI
AFTN THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS HI PRES ALOFT BLDS INTO AND
OVR THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU FRI. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
GENERALLY SE OR S FLO THRU THE FCST PERIOD...INCLUDING THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SFC HI PRES SETTING UP AND SITTING OFF THE MID ATLC CST FM
LATE THU THRU MON...WILL PROVIDE SE/S/SW WNDS 15 KT OR LESS ACRS THE
MARINE AREA. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG