Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS DEVELOPED ALONG A WIND SHIFT SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEAR THE VA/NC BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
TSTMS. ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. LIKELY POPS ARE IN EFFECT TIL 22Z IN NORTH CAROLINA EAST
OF HERTFORD COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TIDEWATER. WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FURTHER NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
EVENING.

A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN OHIO WEDNESDAY
AFTN WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE PIEDMONT AND MD EASTERN
SHORE TO THE LOWER 60S SE VIRGINIA/NE NORTH CAROLINA.

ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE
AREA TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND TIDEWATER
AREA. ADDED A SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS THROUGH 18Z FOR THE COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND DUE TO MODEL DATA AND COORDINATION
WITH OTHER FORECAST OFFICES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLEASANT
WITH MAXIMA RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST (POTENTIALLY
UPPER 60S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE DELMARVA)
TO THE MID 70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH WILL DOMINATE. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN STREAM OF WESTERLIES IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 AT THE
COAST TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE PIEDMONT. LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS WILL SEASONABLY COOL REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTERESTING FORECAST SCENARIO PANNING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. SFC HI
PRES REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SAT WITH DRY CONDS EXPECTED...MSTLY
SNY/PRTLY CLDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. ATTENTION SAT
NGT/SUN TURNS TO POTENTIAL SFC LO PRES DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE COAST
AS A REX BLOCK FORMS OVR THE EASTERN CONUS. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
IS EVIDENT FOR EACH MODEL...DESPITE SOLUTIONS BEING VARIABLE
BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS. NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING THE SFC LOW
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...LEADING TO RAIN STARTING BY
SUN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL CAP POPS AT 30% WITH IT BEING
4 DAYS OUT AND THE GFS BEING COMPLETELY DRY. HIGH TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPR 70S SUN. BROAD UPR-LVL TROF REMAINS IN
PLACE OVR THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL KEEP SLGT
CHC/LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS OVER SE VA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MVFR CLOUDS TO
LIFT IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST INSTABILITY STILL
REMAIN OVER SE VA AND NE NC FOR THE AFTN/EVENING...SO EXPECT MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONVECTION TO OCCUR. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE REGION LATER TONIGH. THIS COULD ALSO INDUCE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT RIGHT NOW NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO N-NE 10KT ON THURSDAY. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR OVER NE NC IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ONSHORE FLOW. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVNG AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVR THE
WATERS. THE FRNT WILL PUSH THRU FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ERLY THU MRNG
THRU MIDDAY WITH WNDS SHIFTING FROM S TO W TO N/NE. SCA HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE BAY WITH THE FROPA WITH MARGINAL SCA WNDS EXPECTED.
THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE RIVERS AND
SOUND. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT OVR COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWING THE FROPA
BUT BEST BET NOW IS FOR 3-4 FT SEAS DUE TO LACK OF N SWELL AND SHORT
DURATION OF HIGH WINDS. NE WINDS DECREASE SLGTLY THU BUT STAY AROUND
15 KT OVR THE BAY AND 15-20 KT OVR THE OCEAN. WNDS PICK BACK UP A
BIT FRI AS A LOW PRES SYSTM DEVELOPS OFF TO THE SE. BUMPED UP WNDS
COMPARED TO GUIDANCE AS MODELS TEND TO UNDERDO NE FLOW. SCA CONDS
EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND IF THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS (LOW PRES COMES
UP THE COAST) PAN OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE JAMES RIVER IS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING IS
FORECAST AT RICHMOND WESTHAM THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. NO OTHER
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. SEE FLWAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
ASOS OBSERVATION FOR PHF IS NOT AVAILABLE LONG LINE DUE TO COMMS
ISSUE. THE PROBLEM IS BEING WORKED ON AND RTS IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
702 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ087>089-091>098-100-171115-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-
SURRY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-NORTHAMPTON VA-
702 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH
HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA AND THE
PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING. URBAN AREAS WILL
BE PARTICULARLY PRONE TO MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>086-090-099-171115-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-JAMES CITY-
ACCOMACK-
702 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658-171115-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT-YORK RIVER-
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE-
JAMES RIVER FROM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO THE HAMPTON ROADS BRIDGE-
TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
702 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER...THE EASTERN
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AND THE EASTERN YORK RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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