Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
358 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES IN
THE TIDEWATER AND NORTHEAST NC REGIONS. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND TRAINING IS STARTING TO OCCUR.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT PRECIP AMOUNTS RECEIVED UNDER THE LINE
OF STORMS REGARDLESS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL UNDER STRONGER STORM CORES.
A SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED THE WEST (IN
THE INTERSTATE 81 VICINITY) AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BECOMES
ENHANCED BY THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE EASTERN PIEDMONT
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT
WHERE A THETA-E GRADIENT SETS UP. ELSEWHERE...THE AMOUNT OF
CUMULUS SEEN ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SUPPORTS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ASIDE FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...THE
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
PAST SUNSET SINCE THERE ARE NO OTHER SHORTWAVE FEATURES AROUND AND
OVERALL FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO MID-LEVELS IS TOO LIGHT TO
TRIGGER/CONTINUE ACTIVITY BEYOND THE WINDOW OF BEST DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN...AREAS OF FOG
WILL DEVELOP ONCE MORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY DENSE FOG AGAIN...
HOWEVER EXACT COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT
THE MOMENT. WILL HIGHLIGHT FOG POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES
OF WEAK SHORTWAVES...IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WOBBLES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS...
THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION WILL VARY EACH DAY. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A FOCUSED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE KEPT THAT PART OF THE FORECAST
INTACT. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE MOVES UP
INTO SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC AND COULD HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION
WITHIN A MORE DESIGNATED AREA THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN EARLY IN THE
WEEK. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THE
POST-DAYBREAK MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE OF FOG SHOULD TRANSITION
FROM AREAS TO PATCHY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE ON A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
FRIDAY COULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT GETS PUMPED UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WENT ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN LOW 80S FOR INTERIOR VA/NC
AND UPPER 70S FOR COASTAL AREAS (INCLUDING THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY IMPACTING
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS COMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SPREADS EAST AND INTO THE FA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO 30-50% RANGE ACCORDINGLY (50%
FAR WEST). MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/TRACK OF UPR LOW WITH THE 20/12Z SUITE...WHICH NOW LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL MOVE INTO AND THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT READY TO GO
LIKELY POPS JUST YET OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HAVE INCREASED TO SOLID
CHC POPS (50%) FOR THE SAT THRU SUN TIME FRAME. WILL TAPER POPS OFF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPR LOW PULLS AWAY...THEN DRY WX RETURNS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXCEPT M-U60S
COASTAL AREAS. A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY/MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EXCEPT 60-65 COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 17Z ASIDE FROM
SBY WHERE LOW STRATUS IS PERSISTENT...AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MID
AFTN. CHANCE FOR SH/TSTM REMAINS TDY ESPECIALLY AT RIC...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOF TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTN
DIMINISH TNGT. LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY AFTER
MIDNITE...EXCEPT AT ECG WHERE CONDS MAY ONLY DROP TO MVFR. CONDS
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNG WED.

A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WED NGT-FRI...SO DIURNAL PATTERN OF
MORNG LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL TEND TO DIMINISH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THRU WED MORNING...THERE WILL BE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE WITH WINDS FROM THE E OR SE AT
LESS THAN 10 KT. FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WED MORNING. SOME MINOR
CHANGES OCCUR BY MIDDAY WED THROUGH THURS AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES A
LITTLE STRONGER AND SSE WINDS WILL TEND TO AVG OUT BETWEEN 10-15 KT
(ALTHOUGH CONTINUES TO LOOK SUB-SCA AT THIS POINT). SEAS 2-3 FT AND
WAVES IN THE BAY 1-2 FT THRU FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES/STRONGER WINDS APPEAR LIKELY BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID-ATLANTIC.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG/BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...JDM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

NCZ015-016-032-202045-
CAMDEN NC-PASQUOTANK NC-PERQUIMANS NC-
344 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING FROM PASQUOTANK INTO PERQUIMANS COUNTY...

AT 343 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORM...ORIENTED FROM PASQUOTANK TO
PASQUOTANK...OR FROM ELIZABETH CITY TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRYSTAL
LAKES...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR PASQUOTANK AROUND 400 PM EDT...
  CHAPANOKE AROUND 410 PM EDT...
  WOODVILLE AROUND 420 PM EDT...
  NIXONTON AROUND 435 PM EDT...
  WINFALL AROUND 445 PM EDT...

EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3620 7647 3622 7650 3635 7643 3638 7622
      3615 7623 3614 7624 3613 7633

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

NCZ031-032-202030-
CHOWAN NC-PERQUIMANS NC-
400 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHOWAN COUNTY...

AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM FROM TYNER TO HERTFORD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR VALHALLA AROUND 415 PM EDT...
SNUG HARBOR AROUND 420 PM EDT...EDENTON AROUND 425 PM EDT.

EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3601 7660 3604 7662 3603 7664 3604 7668
      3627 7666 3626 7647 3605 7642 3601 7646
      3600 7650

05