Small Craft Advisory 28, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...THEN PUSHES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEASONABLY COLD EARLY THIS MORNING ACRS THE MID ATLC...SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS. LOOKING AT IR/WV
SATELLITE REVEALS THAT RATHER QUICK CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY
LATER TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. STILL A QUIET PATTERN
TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALL AREAS LATER THIS
MORNING AND BY MID AFTN SKIES WILL TEND TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY.
BULK OF FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST OFF TO OUR
SW HOWEVER...SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY TODAY. MODERATE SW FLOW GETS
GOING THIS AFTN SO EVEN W/ CLOUDS SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLOSE TO
MAV/MET NUMBERS...MID-UPR 50S SOUTH TO AROUND 50 FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FIRST STAGE IN A TWO-PART EVENT BEGINS THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACRS THE GULF COAST STATES AND OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. SFC LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS ALONG
THE NC/SC COAST BY 06Z/SAT...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT
WILL BE JUST OFF THE SE VA/NC COAST BY 12Z/SAT. DECENT FORCING
DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS 01-03Z THIS EVENING ACRS NE NC...PEAKS/FOCUSES ACRS
SE ZONES BETWEEN 03-09Z. WILL CONTINUE W/ CAT POPS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME IN THE SE...WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE. QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE SE ZONES WHERE ABOUT
0.50" WILL BE POSSIBLE. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN AS PTYPE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A LIGHT RA/SN MIX IN
EXTREME NW ZONES (WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF IT DID OCCUR AND W/ TEMPS
ABOVE 32 F/NO IMPACTS). LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NW PIEDMONT
TO 40-45 SE VA/NE NC.

SAT...EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS GENLY REMAINED SIMILAR OVER THE
PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...STILL TOO PROGRESSIVE FOR PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW. THE SFC LOW AND
MAIN PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD ALREADY BE EXITING THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER. AS
PREVIOUS SHIFTS NOTED...LOOKS LIKE A LULL FOR MID MORNING THROUGH
EARLY-MID AFTN AHEAD OF TH APPOACHING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
HAVE KEPT POPS AT OR BELOW 20%. STILL A LOT OF MSTR FOR MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE SRN 1/2.
TEMPS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPR 40S N...LWR 50S FAR S. WITH
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...NAM/GFS AND ECMWF FOR THAT MATTER...SHOW
STONG DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. DEEPEST
FORCING LOOKS ALIGNED FROM CAROLINE COUNTY ESE THROUGH THE VA ERN
SHORE DURING THIS PERIOD...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN
MUCH OF EN VA N OF I-64. COLD AIR ARRIVAL IS ABOUT 3 HRS SLOWER
THAN PREV MODELS...SO SNOW LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z IN
THE FAR NW...AND AFTER ABOUT 23Z/6 PM FROM METRO RICHMOND ON SE.
LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC CASE WHERE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL FIGHT W/ DRY
LOW LEVELS. FCST FOR LIKELY SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO CLIMO FAVORED
NRN ENCK AND VA ERN SHORE...MAINLY FROM 23Z-03Z/SUN. W/ STRONG
LIFT...COULD SEE A QUICK 1" OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS..BUT SFC TEMPS
WILL HAVE BEEN RATHER WARM SO ROADS WILL SEE MINIMAL IMPACTS.
ELSWEHERE WILL O W/ 40-50% CHC SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.

DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DEPTH OF INSTABILITY WOULD ALLOW
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
REGION. GUSTS SHOULD EASILY REACH 30 TO 35 MPH...POTENTIALLY
REACHING 40 TO 45 MPH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE EVENING WHEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE SHOULD EXPERIENCE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS DURING THE SAME
TIMEFRAME AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ENHANCES NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NEARBY OCEAN WATERS.

NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON SUNDAY AS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN
THIS COLDER WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH A SPLIT FLOW. NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF ANY SHORT WAVES THAT MAY
AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...INCLUDED
30 PERCENT POPS OVER SE PORTIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE
AREA THURSDAY AND INCLUDED 30 PERCENT POPS OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MONDAY MORNING WARM TO
THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES RIGHT OVR THE AREA ERLY THIS MORNG...WILL MOVE OFF THE CST
THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRNT WILL APPROACH FM THE NW AND
WEAK LO PRES AREAS WILL DEVELOP OVR THE GULF CST AND SE STATES.
EXPECT INCREASING HI AND MID LVL CLDS TO STREAM INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. SW WNDS WILL BE
5 TO 10 MPH OVR THE AREA. CIGS/VSBYS LWR QUICKLY TO MVFR THEN IFR
LATER TNGT INTO SAT MORNG...AS LO PRES INTENSIFIES A BIT OVR THE
CAROLINAS AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL TAF SITES FM LATER THIS
EVENG INTO SAT MORNG.

THE SFC LO WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING SAT AS IT MOVES NE
AWAY FM THE REGION. CIGS/VSBYS SHUD IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES BY LATE SAT MORNG OR ERLY SAT AFTN...AS
NNW WNDS START TO USHER SOME DRIER AIR IN. HOWEVER...A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACRS THE REGION LATE SAT AFTN THRU SAT NGT
WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. ANY RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS SAT EVENG AND CONTINUE THRU
SAT NGT...ESPLY OVR ERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN
WITH A VIGOROUS UPR LVL SYSTEM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUN AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AND MON. THERE WILL
BE A CHC FOR PCPN ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE OFF THE
COAST AND INTENSIFY SATURDAY MORNING. N/NW WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
INCREASE AND MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY
AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE SATURDAY NIGHT...
DIMINISHING SLOWLY SUNDAY. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NWS WAKEFIELD RADAR...KAKQ...WILL UNDERGO AN UPGRADE TO DUAL
POLARIZATION TECHNOLOGY THROUGH THURSDAY FEBRUARY 16TH. RADAR
DATA WILL BE UNAVAILABLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/BMD
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
853 PM EST THU FEB 9 2012

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-110200-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
853 PM EST THU FEB 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION
QUICKLY FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN ALL SNOW AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO GRASSY SURFACES AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658-110200-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
853 PM EST THU FEB 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD
REACH GALE FORCE OVER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

44