Small Craft Advisory 106, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
504 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND
WILL STALL OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TORNADO WATCH CANCELED FOR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AKQ CWA AS THE
LINE OF STRONG STORMS HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. TORNADO WATCH
REMAINS FOR EASTERN AREAS UNTIL 7 PM.

ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 35KT WINDS AT
2K FT AND 50KT WINDS AT 4K FT. SO...40 MPH WINDS COULD MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE WITHIN ANY STRONGER DOWNPOURS. WEAK ROTATION HAS BEEN
NOTED WITH SOME STORMS TO THE S...SO THERE EXISTS A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME SEVERE/TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS THESE STORMS MOVE N/NE.

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX W/ THE PASSING OF A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STRONG
WINDS APPROACHING 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE. THE LINE IS
MOVING MORE SLOWLY DUE TO THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVING FARTHER N AND
TRAINING OF SOME STORMS HAS CAUSED SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN. THE LINE HAS ALREADY CLEARED THE W/NW
COUNTIES...EXPECT THE LINE TO BE THROUGH THE REST OF AREA BY 00Z
WED. SEVERE CHANCES DIMINISH AT THIS POINT BUT RAIN CHANCES LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AS UPR
JET DYNAMICS REMAIN FAVORABLE.

OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIP...ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN BREEZY W/ GUSTS TO
25 MPH...DUE TO STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEPENING SFC
LOW ACRS WV MOVING N. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN W TO E AS MIXING
DIMINISHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AROUND 22/23Z. WINDS
WILL TURN NW/NNW AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR 50S/60 FAR NW TO AROUND 70 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE BY 12Z WED ALLOWING FOR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY WED MORNING BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WED INTO THURSDAY
WITH MODEST CAA PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z THU. NAM SHOWS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE NC COAST THU. PROLONGED
NE FLOW COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES
ALONG THE COAST INTO THU. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE
COAST...EXPECT PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND MORE
SUNSHINE.

HIGHS WED MAINLY 70-75...LOWS WED NIGHT AROUND 50 NW TO AROUND 60
SE...HIGHS 75-80 ON THU...AND AROUND 80 ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF MODEL BLEND BUT LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER
ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND. MILD AND
DRY FRI NITE AND SAT. LEE TROF DVLPMNT CUD RESULT IN AN ISLTD SHWR
ACROSS NWRN COUNTIES LATE. LOWS FRI NITE 60-65. HIGHS SAT 80-85.

FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NITE AND SUNDAY. WILL
CARRY 20-30% POPS SAT NITE AND LOW CHC POPS (30%) ALL AREAS SUN.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FAIRLY LIMITED...SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF
FORECAST. LOWS SAT NITE U50S-M60S. COOLER SUN DUE TO CLOUDS AND
SPORATIC PCPN. HIGHS M70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGHS MON / TUE IN THE L-M70S. LOWS M40S-M50S
EXCEPT 55-60 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL DRIVE A S WIND OF
15 TO 20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NNE. ANY IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE BRIEF AND
CONFINED TO STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEEKEND LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE SEEN PAST FEW HOURS. APPEARS THAT WE
HAVE ANOTHER 3-6 HR PRD OF POTENTIAL GALE FORCE GUSTS AHEAD OF THE
LINE ON TSTRMS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE I95 CORRIDOR. THUS...WILL CONT
THE GALE HEADLINES UNTIL THIS LINE MOVES TO THE EAST. EXPECT WNDS
TO DIMINISH A BIT BY LATE EVENING BEFORE A DECENT N-NW SURGE BEHIND
FROPA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH STILL
POSSIBLE DUE TO CAA.

WINDS/SEAS SLOW TO DIMINISH WED SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE
GALES HAVE SUBSIDED. N-NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW BECOMES SOUTH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE CAMBRIDGE MD
AREA THIS EVE AS LATEST GUIDANCE / OBS SHOWING SOME MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE (ARND 630 PM).

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AT SBY...NORMAL ASOS COMMS REMAIN DOWN AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY DOWN
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. OBS ARE BEING SENT BY THE TOWER BUT THESE UPDATES
MAY NOT OCCUR AT REGULAR TIME INTERVALS...SO AMD NOT SKED WILL
CONTINUE TO APPEAR IN THE TAFS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DAP
NEAR TERM...DAP
SHORT TERM...LKB/DAP
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...

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