Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING HOT TEMPERATURES. AN ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THERE STILL ARE SOME
EMBEDDED IMPULSES PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT THE BEST
CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS IL/IN AT THIS TIME AND IT HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT FOR ANY CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITSELF IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS MCS IN THE PRESENCE OF A RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
(CAPPING) INVERSION.

THIS STRONG INVERSION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
DOES NOT DECAY UNTIL 23/00Z (7-8PM)...SO AT THIS POINT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. HIGH-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO 30-40 PERCENT POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. AGAIN...A STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL
EXISTS WITH MODESTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS...BUT WOULD BE MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED THAN LAST NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY BE IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES STEADILY MORE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAKENS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.

SUNDAY...HEAT SHOULD RETURN AFTER AN UNEXPECTED LULL TODAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD STILL MIX
DOWN INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO EXCESSIVE HEAT IS
NOT EXPECTED. A PORTION OF THE AREA MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY...BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT SO A HEADLINE WILL NOT
BE ISSUED AT THIS POINT. THE FLOW MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT THE
SEABREEZE COULD DOMINATE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100...WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105. AGAIN...THERE IS A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP THEY
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES FALL SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S
NE...TO UPPER 90S SW. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH
WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THRU THURSDAY WITH MAINLY AFTN/EVE TSTM
CHANCES. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SO WILL DOWNPLAY TSTM CHANCES THEN. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S THRU THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
BETWEEN 70-75 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLR EARLY THIS AFTN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SW-W
WNDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. A SEABREEZE ALONG THE COAST (ORF/ECG)
WILL RESULT IN NE-SE WNDS THRU THE AFTN BEFORE SHIFTING TO S-SW
LATE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION MORE THAN CB IN THE TAFS. AS WITH YESTERDAY...THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG WINDS.

OUTLOOK...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID
ATL STATES RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH...HOT AND HUMID DAYTIME CONDITIONS AND
AN LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS...WITH WAVES 1 TO 2 FT ON
THE CHES BAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
   FORECAST HIGH  RECORD HIGHS
   -------------  ------------------------------------------
     SUN 7/1     SUN 7/1    MON 7/2
RIC     100       102/1945   100/1953
ORF      99       100/1901   100/1901
SBY      96        98/1968    99/1913
ECG      99        98/1945    97/1953

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...NONE.
VA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ063-070-
     071-080>084-090-091-093>098.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
549 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ060-061-065>069-079-087>089-092-012200-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-BRUNSWICK-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-
SURRY-SOUTHAMPTON-
549 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

VAZ070-071-080>082-090-091-093>097-012200-
CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-JAMES CITY-
YORK-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-
CHESAPEAKE-
549 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA AND THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

MDZ021>024-VAZ063-083-084-098-012200-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-HANOVER-NEW KENT-
GLOUCESTER-VIRGINIA BEACH-
549 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON
ROADS VIRGINIA AND THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

MDZ025-NCZ102-VAZ048-049-062-064-072>078-085-086-099-100-012200-
MARYLAND BEACHES-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-GOOCHLAND-
CAROLINE-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
549 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658-012200-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT-YORK RIVER-
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE-
JAMES RIVER FROM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO THE HAMPTON ROADS BRIDGE-
TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
549 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER...THE EASTERN
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AND THE EASTERN YORK RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
608 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

VAZ048-049-302245-
FLUVANNA VA-LOUISA VA-
608 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO LOUISA COUNTY...

AT 607 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF LOUISA TO
23 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE MONTICELLO...OR FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF
LOUISA TO 29 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALMYRA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BOSWELLS TAVERN AROUND 635 PM EDT...
  LOUISA AROUND 645 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3813 7822 3815 7814 3814 7812 3816 7810
      3814 7806 3814 7801 3812 7797 3811 7785
      3790 7775 3789 7803 3790 7806 3789 7807
      3788 7841

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
718 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

VAZ049-302345-
LOUISA VA-
718 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO LOUISA COUNTY...

AT 718 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BOSWELLS TAVERN TO 7 MILES EAST OF MINERAL...OR FROM 22 MILES NORTH
OF PALMYRA TO 7 MILES EAST OF MINERAL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BOSWELLS TAVERN AROUND 735 PM EDT...
  MINERAL AROUND 740 PM EDT...

EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3814 7821 3813 7818 3815 7814 3814 7812
      3816 7810 3814 7806 3814 7801 3812 7797
      3812 7788 3810 7783 3802 7772 3791 7807
      3801 7831

44