Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
315 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING HOT TEMPERATURES. AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG H5 TROUGH OVER
QUEBEC INTO ATLANTIC CANADA, WITH STRONG SFC RIDGING NOW BECOMING
A BIT MORE SUPPRESSED, AS IT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN OLD MEXICO
OVER TO THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.

HEAT HAS RETURNED TODAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE 60S
WEST OF I-95...BUT REMAIN IN THE 70S TO THE EAST. A HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN HOISTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF RIC METRO AND INCLUDES
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR IMMEDIATE COASTAL VB/OUTER
BANKS CURRITUCK. OVER THIS AREA, EXPECT THE FLOW MAY BE WEAK
ENOUGH THAT THE SEABREEZE COULD DOMINATE ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND WL LKLY KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA TO RISE WELL INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER WESTERN
VA RELATED TO AN EARLIER MCS AND THIS SHOULD ROLL E-SE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ENOUGH SHEAR AND CAPE IS PRESENT TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. HENCE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IT
STEADILY BECOMES SUPPRESSED BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...AND A
RELATIVELY MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH MAY SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES FALL ACCORDINGLY...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT...BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH MAXIMA RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S NE...TO UPPER 90S
SW. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC FIELD COULD STILL SUPPORT SEVERE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER SE VA AND NE NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
WIND FIELD WEAKENS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO CONVECTION SHOULD
LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS. OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION THRU THURSDAY WITH MAINLY AFTN/EVE TSTM CHANCES. THIS
TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN FRIDAY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING THAT AN UPPER
RIDGE SURGES EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE MAY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WILL DOWNPLAY TSTM
CHANCES THEN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT LEAST IN THE LOW/MID 90S THRU THE
PERIOD...BUT COULD RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 70-75
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MVFR WILL BE
PSBL MONDAY MRNG IN AREAS OF RECENT RAINFALL BUT WILL RE-ASSESS
WITH LATER ISSUANCES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THREATEN MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED VCTS REMARKS FOR NOW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY. WILL AMEND WHEN A TSTMS THREATENS TO
BRING CEILINGS AND VSBYS DOWN OR FOR GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH...HOT AND HUMID DAYTIME CONDITIONS AND A
LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW
OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS. LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
S/SW OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS WINDS
TURN BACK TO SE/S MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS...WITH WAVES 1 TO 2 FT
ON THE CHES BAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A STALLED FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGH  RECORD HIGHS
   -------------  ------------------------------------------
     SUN 7/1  SUN 7/1    MON 7/2
RIC  99       102/1945   100/1953
ORF  99       100/1901   100/1901
SBY  97        98/1968    99/1913
ECG  99        98/1945    97/1953

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ063-070-
     071-080>084-090-091-093>098.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-065>068-
     070-071-079>084-086>097.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/JDM
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

VAZ088-092-093-012030-
ISLE OF WIGHT-SOUTHAMPTON-SUSSEX-
341 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS ISLE OF WIGHT...CITY OF
FRANKLIN...SUSSEX AND SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 340 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SEBRELL...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF COURTLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...VICKSVILLE...
COURTLAND...STORY...HANDSOM...HUNTERDALE...FRANKLIN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

LAT...LON 3678 7733 3692 7722 3674 7677 3664 7690
      3663 7689 3662 7691 3658 7691 3657 7693
      3655 7692 3655 7695

ZIMMERMAN

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