Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
542 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FRONT DRAPED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ESE TODAY AS A LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. A TIGHT THETA-E GRADIENT IS SEEN ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SECONDARY THETA-E RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT (PRIMARILY
NORTH OF A LOUISA-RICHMOND-MELFA LINE). MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THIS AREA HAVE DEVELOPED QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
LEE TROUGH BOUNDARY AND THEY EXTEND DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC
ATTM. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LINE UP ALONG THIS FEATURE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW
(AOB 15-20 KT) AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING
STORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE
LEE TROUGH STORMS ARE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
THETA-E RIDGING...INSTABILITY...AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
PERSISTENTLY LIGHT FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
(AOB 30 KT) AND HIGH PWATS AROUND 2.50 INCHES WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT
IS LOCATED AND HOW MUCH SUNSHINE IS EXPERIENCED...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 90S REGIONWIDE...INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID
70S REGARDLESS OF AFTERNOON MIXING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES AND UP TO 109 DEGREES REGIONWIDE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF A WALLOPS-RICHMOND-
FARMVILLE LINE WHERE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 105-109 DEGREES. A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ATTM. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 70S YET AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND CONTINUING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. EXPECT
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST
NC...AND IN THE UPPER 80S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.

SATURDAY...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT BECOMES DRAPED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND OUTER BANKS BY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO LINGER NEAR THE VA/NC COAST IN THE MORNING...BECOMING
FOCUSED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
HAMPER STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
SEABREEZES COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE CUMULUS FIELD
FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP (ESPECIALLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION...THUS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ENHANCED LIFT).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY TO RMN JUST S OF THE FA LATE IN THE WKND...BEFORE DSPTG
ERY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...RGN TO RMN IN NW FLO ALOFT...WHICH MANY
TIMES BRINGS THE CONCERN FOR TSRAS MOVG FM THE LAKES/OH VALLEY SE
TWD/INTO THE MDATLC STATES. THAT IS POSSIBLE TUE/WED.

FOR SUN...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS (TO 40%) ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF VA
AND INTO NE NC...MNLY SLGT CHC ELSEWHERE. FOR MON THROUGH WED...WILL
HAVE TYPICAL DIURNAL POPS.

WITH ONSHR WNDS AND CONCERN OVR WIDESPREAD CLDNS ON SUN...HAVE
TRIMMED TEMP GUID (BY AN AVG OF 3-5 DEGS F)...WITH HI TEMPS MNLY FM
THE L/M80S. WARMER/HOT WX RETURNS FOR MON THROUGH WED...THOUGH TEMPS
MNLY WITHIN +/- 1 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF CLIMO (HI TEMPS FM THE U80S
TO L90S...LO TEMPS IN THE L/M70S).

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLD TO SCT CNVTN THROUGH THE AFTN/EVE HRS. WILL CONT TO MONITOR
FOR NEED TO LWR (MNLY) VSBY IN ANY STMS THAT APPROACH THE TAF
SITES. MR LIKELY TO VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS THU INTO FRI AS CDFNT
SETTLES S ACRS THE RGN (ACCOMPANIED BY SHRAS/TSTMS). A CHC FOR
SHRAS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS MNLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
CDFNT DRAPED E-W N OF THE WTRS THIS AFTN WILL BE SLO TO SETTLE S
INTO THE NRN WTRS BY THU AFTN. A COUPLE OF WEAK AREAS OF LO PRES
TO TRACK ALONG THE FNT SLOWING DOWN THE FNT AS IT CONTS MOVG S
INTO THE NC WTRS FRI INTO SAT. MUCH DIFFERENT WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
FCSTS FM THE NAM/GFS. WILL CONT TO FAVOR THE GFS (WHICH IS CLOSE
BUT A BIT WEAKER THAN PREV FCST) IN THAT A NE WND DVLPS INITIALLY
OVR THE FAR NRN WTRS BY LT FRI...THEN CONTS TO PROGRESS SWD
THROUGH SAT. RIGHT NOW...LO CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS (POST CDFNT)...AND PROB RMNS LO WITH REGARDS TO ANY
POTENTIAL NEED FOR SCAS (DUE TO INCRSD SPDS AND/OR WAVE/SEA HGTS).
WINDS LIKELY TO RMN ONSHR THROUGH SUN WITH FNTL BNDRY STAYING JUST
S OF THE WTRS. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN XPCD OVR THE WTRS ERY
NEXT WEEK WITH LGT WINDS AND WAVES/SEA HGTS BLO SCA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ACTUAL AND RECORD MAXIMA FOR WED 7/18
FORECAST AND RECORD MAIMA FOR THU 7/19...

       WED JULY 18           THU JULY 19
     ACTUAL/ RECORD          FCST/ RECORD
      ----------------      ----------------
RIC     96/ 101 (1977)        96/ 101 (1942)
ORF     96/ 104 (1942)        95/ 101 (1942)
SBY   100R/ 100 (1953)        94/  99 (1977)
ECG     96/ 107 (1942)        96/ 105 (1942)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>100.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ063-070-
     071-080>083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...

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