Winter Storm Warning 30, NWS Juneau, AK

941 
WWAK47 PAJK 300706
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1006 PM AKST THU NOV 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
TONIGHT...

AKZ018-019-301400-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0030.000000T0000Z-121130T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
1006 PM AKST THU NOV 29 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY. 

* LOCATION...HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE 
  HIGHWAYS 

* SNOW...4 TO 5 INCHES IN THE TOWNS OF HAINES AND SKAGWAY WITH 7 
  TO 9 INCHES OVERNIGHT ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY AND 6 TO 8 
  INCHES ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AND REACH MAXIMUM 
  INTENSITY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES WILL THEN DIMINISH 
  TOWARDS MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...POWDERY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE QUICKLY. STRONG WINDS 
  ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. BLOWING SNOW 
  WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 500 AM AKST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ025-026-301400-
/X.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-121130T1400Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
1006 PM AKST THU NOV 29 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
FRIDAY. 

* SNOW...AS OF LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON UP TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
  HAD FALLEN IN THE ADVISORY AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS
  EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR A STORM TOTAL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...BANDS OF SNOW WILL MOVE OVER THE ADVISORY AREA FROM 
  SOUTH TO NORTH CREATING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL 
  THROUGH THE NIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...POWDERY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE QUICKLY. STRONG WINDS 
  ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. 
  BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN THESE LOCATIONS AND 
  DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 500 AM AKST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

FRITSCH

575 
WWAK47 PAJK 301338
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
438 AM AKST FRI NOV 30 2012

AKZ018-019-301445-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0030.000000T0000Z-121130T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
438 AM AKST FRI NOV 30 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE BAND
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ025-026-301445-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WW.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-121130T1400Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
438 AM AKST FRI NOV 30 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE BANDS OF
SNOW HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME MORE SNOW BANDS
NEAR THE PETERSBURG, WRANGELL AREA BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 2
INCHES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
304 PM AKST THU NOV 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
SOUTH OF THE GULF GENERALLY PERSISTENT THROUGH IT WILL BE
WEAKENING AND DRIFTING T THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST CANADA
WILL PERSIST. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES STRONG OUTFLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECT THAT THESE WINDS WILL
PERSIST GENERA LY THROUGH THE SHORT TIME FRAME.

 A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SNOW IS STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAINLY DROPPING A FINE GRAIN SNOW FLAKES.
REPORTS OF AMOUNTS OF THE SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IS
1 TO 3 INCHES. THE FRONT SHOULD BE STRETCHING AND SHEERING OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND ROTATING ABOUT NEAR YAKUTAT BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OF FRIDAY.

 ANOTHER WORRY POINT WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES IS AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY FOR MARINERS FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE CANADIAN HIGH AND ITS
OUTFLOW VS THE LOW IN THE GULF STARTS TO DETERMINE A WINNER BY
THE END OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. THAT WINNER IS THE LOW IN THE
GULF FOLLOWING A ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING THE
SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF. THESE FEATURES
WILL BE SLAMMING INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING
PRECIP AND SOME WIND. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY COMING
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND WHICH WILL NOT
SHOW UP UNTIL TUES.

 FROM BOTH SYSTEMS, WIND WILL NOT BE VERY MUCH OF A PROBLEM.
PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERS AROUND BOTH ARE NOT VERY TIGHT UNTIL
YOU GET TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
FALTERING CANADIAN HIGH. EXPECTING AT MOST SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO
MAYBE MIN GALE IN CLARENCE STRAIT SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN EVENING.
THE PRECIP WILL BE THE BIGGER CONCERN AS THERE WILL STILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE INNER CHANNELS. AREAS AROUND
FREDERICH SOUND AND NORTHWARD WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR MORE SNOW
STARTING SUN. NOT EXPECTING A HUGE SNOW DUMP AS THERE IS NOT MUCH
OF A MOISTURE PLUME AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH. MOST
ACCUMULATION MAY BE DUE TO OVERRUNNING SNOW RATHER THAN LARGE QPF
AMOUNTS. LOCATION WILL ALSO PLAY A PART AS HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK
TO BE AROUND THE FREDRICK SOUND TO ICE STRAIT AREA. AREAS FARTHER
NORTH START TO GET INTO THE DIMINISHED BUT STILL PRESENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE PRECIP WILL START TO BREAK UP. FARTHER
SOUTH AND IT WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW.

 AS FOR THE THE HIGH IN CANADA, IT WILL BE SUFFERING FROM
WITHDRAWAL. IN THIS CASE WITHDRAWAL OF REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR FROM THE ARCTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
SUPPLYING THIS COLD AIR WILL BECOME MORE BROAD, AXIS DRIFTS A BIT
TO THE WEST, AND IT BECOMES LESS POSITIVELY TILTED BY THE TIME WE
GET TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT IS THE COLD SHOTS THAT WOULD
HAVE BEEN PUMPING UP OUR CANADIAN HIGH ARE NOW GETTING DIRECTED
TO WESTERN ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN THE
YUKON THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BUT AT A WEAKER
STRENGTH THAN WHAT IT HAS BEEN SHOWING. THE ONLY THING SUSTAINING
IT IS THE LINGERING COLD AIR THAT REMAINS TRAPPED ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS. FOR THE PANHANDLE THIS MEANS
GRADUALLY DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK ONLY MIN NORTHERLY
GALES SHOULD BE BLOWING IN LYNN CANAL WITH WEAKER OUTFLOWS OUT OF
TAKU INLET AND OTHER OUTFLOW AREAS.

 MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BEEN RATHER GOOD OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH DIVERGENCE BETWEEN RUNS EITHER. THE ONE
KINK IS THE DEPICTION OF THE WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUES. THE LATEST EC HAS ABANDON IT IN FAVOR OF BEEFING UP A WAVE
ON MON EVENING THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MUCH WEAKER. DECIDED ON USING
THE PREVIOUS EC RUN AS WELL AS HPC AS THE ENSEMBLE RUNS STILL ARE
FAVORING THE TUES WAVE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ020.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ029.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ029.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ019-029.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ017-018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-022.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-031>035-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-041-042-052.

&&

BEZENEK/EAL