Winter Storm Warning 26, NWS Juneau, AK

130 
WWAK47 PAJK 181941
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1141 AM AKDT SUN MAR 18 2012

AKZ023-182300-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WS.W.0026.000000T0000Z-120318T2300Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
1141 AM AKDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATION...VICINITY OF SITKA

* SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES HAD FALLEN BY 10 AM AND A
  TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 IS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BAND STALLED OVER THE SITKA AREA 
  WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND NOON BEFORE DISSIPATING 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE 
  EXPECTED TO PERSIST. AIR TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED DUE TO SNOW 
  ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS AND WEATHER. ROAD TRAVEL MAY BECOME 
  HAZARDOUS DUE TO THE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON ROADWAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 PM AKDT SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

323 
WWAK47 PAJK 181952 CCA
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1151 AM AKDT SUN MAR 18 2012

AKZ023-182300-
/X.COR.PAJK.WS.W.0026.000000T0000Z-120318T2300Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
1151 AM AKDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATION...VICINITY OF SITKA

* SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES HAD FALLEN BY 10 AM AND A
  TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 IS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BAND STALLED OVER THE SITKA AREA 
  WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 3 PM BEFORE DISSIPATING 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE 
  EXPECTED TO PERSIST. AIR TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED DUE TO SNOW 
  ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS AND WEATHER. ROAD TRAVEL MAY BECOME 
  HAZARDOUS DUE TO THE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON ROADWAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 PM AKDT SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

807 
WWAK47 PAJK 182250
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
250 PM AKDT SUN MAR 18 2012

AKZ023-190000-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0026.000000T0000Z-120318T2300Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
250 PM AKDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW IS OR WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WERE REPORTS IN THE SITKA AREA OF 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT 6 MILE
SAW CREEK ROAD AND 7 INCHES AT THE FIRE HALL.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
613 AM AKDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...A NEGATIVLY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM KODIAK TO VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. STILL HAVE SEVERAL SMALL LOWS UNDER THIS
TROUGH. THE FIRST LOW IS JUST NORTHWEST OF SITKA AND FORECAST TO
MOVE NW AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. A SECOND LOW OVER THE WESTERN COAST
OF POW ISLAND IS DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT.

 RADAR SHOWING AREAS OF SHOWERS OVER BARANOF ISLAND ALTHOUGH
SITKA AIRPORT IS IN LEE AND HAS BEEN MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE SCATTERED BUT ARE MOVING
ONSHORE. SATELLITE SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN POW ISLAND THAT COULD PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FOR
KLAWOCK. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW FOR PAHN.

 EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND COULD IX WITH RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT FOR MOST PART AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. BETWEEN SHOWERS COULD SEE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER BUT
OVERALL SKIES CONDITION REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT AND SKIES START TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY.

 OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS
WITH JUST A FEW GUSTS NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS. AROUND THE LOW IN
THE COASTAL WATERS AND CROSS SOUND WILL SEE 20-25 KT THAT GIVES
WAY TO GENERAL 15 KT WESTERLY ACROSS THE GULF.

 HAD GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. USED THE
NAM12 FOR PRES AND WINDS.

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROF REMAINING OVER THE GULF. THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BERING
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES INTO THE
GULF. THE WEATHER WILL BE ON THE QUITE SIDE WITH THE JET OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC SO JUST A CHANGE OF PRECIP WILL BE DOMINATE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SO WITH THAT SAID
THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FROM WED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AND DID NOT CHANGE THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS HPC
GUIDANCE WAS IN THERE AND LOOKED GOOD.

AT THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
IMPROVED BUT NOT GREAT WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO THE
MID 960'S AS IT APPROACHING HAIDA GWAII BUT WILL SIGNIFICANT
WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF SE AK. THE LOW WILL
DRIFT OVER HAIDA GWAII TUE BEFORE IT FALLS APART OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. A RESIDUAL LOW WILL FORM OVER THE GULF
WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF.

THERE WILL SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AS WEAKEN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES OVER SE AK. A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OVER THE APPROACHING LOW WILL CAP THE SHOWERS. WITH
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH MON OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AND OVER THE FAR SE GULF WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AS THE DEVELOPING LOW LIFTS NE. FOR THE MOST PART THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND BE
SMALL CRAFT TO GALES BY TUE MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE COAST RANGE ALONG WITH
GUSTS WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND NEAR MOUNTAIN GAPS.
THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY SEE STRONG WINDS GUSTS NEAR EXPOSED AREAS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST FROM THE EAST. AS THE
LOW WEAKENS TUE NIGHT INTO WED THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX ALSO.
PRECIP FROM THE LOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF AS THE
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AREAS
ON THE DRY SIDE. THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE PRECIP DEVELOP
THROUGH MON NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WED. THE PRECIP WILL START OUT
AS SNOW WITH COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH COLD DEW POINTS THAT WILL BE
REINFORCED FROM THE EASTERLY WINDS. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX
WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON AND AS THE WARM CORE LIFTS OVER
THE AREA TUE EVENING IT SHOULD TURN TO ALL RAIN BUT THERE MAYBE
SOME POCKETS OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. AMOUNTS WILL BE
TRICKY BUT ATTM THE THINKING IS THAT THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES.

THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
USED A BLEND OF THE EC/UKMET FOR THE FORECAST FROM MON THROUGH
WED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-051.

&&

MM/ABJ