Winter Storm Warning 22, NWS Juneau, AK

191 
WWAK47 PAJK 021358
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
458 AM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

AKZ017-021500-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120302T1500Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
458 AM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES
HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AT YAKUTAT
AIRPORT FOR THIS EVENT HAS BEEN 11 INCHES.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ019-021500-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-120302T1500Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
458 AM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

TEMPERATURES IN AND NEAR HAINES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AND SNOW
HAS CHANGED TO RAIN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HAINES
HIGHWAY THIS MORNING HOWEVER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO 2 INCHES OR LESS. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1240 PM AKST THU MAR 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE IS RATHER QUIET AT THE
MOMENT. MOST PLACES ARE REPORTING WINDS BELOW 20 KT AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS. THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE IS
HAINES WHERE POSSIBLE OVERRUNNING IN LYNN CANAL IS BRINGING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW.

RATHER COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE WORKS FOR TONIGHT. SATELLITE
IMAGES ARE SHOWING A RATHER FAST MOVING FRONT TREKKING ACROSS THE
GULF TODAY. THE UPPER PARTS OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN PUSHED WELL
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS EVIDENCED BY THE HIGH CLOUDS
ALREADY PUSHING OVER THE PANHANDLE COURTESY OF A 100 KT JET AT 500
MB. THE SURFACE FRONT IS JUST NOW ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF AND
THE RADAR NEAR SITKA SHOWS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM
PRECIP HAS REACHED THE OUTER COAST. THAT SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST PLACES
STARTING OUT AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING, WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CAUSE JUNEAU,
GUSTAVUS, AND HOONAH TO START TO MIX WITH RAIN AS THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WARMS. HOWEVER, THIS FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SO FAST
THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE COOLING DOWN AGAIN AND THE
REMAINING SHOWERS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. HAINES AND SKAGWAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW FOR
THE DURATION. YAKUTAT WILL BE SNOW MOST OF THE EVENING, BUT THE
EASTERLY WINDS THERE WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE SE LATE TONIGHT ONCE
THAT HAPPENS TEMPS WILL START TO WARM UP AND THE SNOW WILL START
MIXING WITH RAIN. I AM NOT EXPECTING THAT HIGH OF SNOW AMOUNTS
TONIGHT DUE IN PART TO THE SPEED THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH
AND THE WARM ADVECTION THAT IS IN FRONT OF IT. YAKUTAT AND THE
HAINES HIGHWAY WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WITH UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN JUNEAU, HOONAH, GUSTAVUS
AND FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES EITHER
CHANGING THE SNOW TO RAIN OR THE SURFACE BEING TOO WARM FOR THE
SNOW TO ACCUMULATE THAT WELL. SKAGWAY WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS AS
WELL WITH TERRAIN EFFECTS KEEPING A PORTION OF THE PRECIP AT BAY.

WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH THIS FRONT DUE TO ITS
DISTANCE FROM THE PARENT LOW. I DO NOT EXPECT TO BE NEEDING ANY
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT, BUT WIND GUSTS TO
25 TO 30 KT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT SW WINDS WILL BE STARTING TO KICK UP IN
THE GULF TOMORROW WITH GALES IN THE OFFSHORE AND SMALL CRAFTS
FARTHER EAST. FOR THE PANHANDLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
THE RULE OF THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS BLOWING IN
MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS TOMORROW.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT HAD SOME TIMING
AND TEMPERATURE ISSUES WITH THE FRONT. EC WAS TOO SLOW WITH THE
FRONT AND THE NAM STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO COLD DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS FOR UPDATES TODAY AS NOT ONLY
WAS IT A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND BUT HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION AS
WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
          AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-041.

&&

EAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
542 PM AKST THU MAR 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     HEAVY SNOW       YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
03/01/2012  E8.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            A REPORT FROM THE PUBLIC IN DOWNTOWN YAKUTAT WAS ABOUT 6
            INCHES ON THIER TRUCK BY NOON...FROM THE MORNING... AND
            POSSIBLYANOTHER 6 INCHES BY 430 PM. ESTMIATED AMOUNT 8 TO
            12 TOTAL AND STILL SNOWING.

&&

BMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
722 PM AKST THU MAR 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     HEAVY SNOW       YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
03/01/2012  E6.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AN ESTIMATED 5 TO 6 INCHES SINCE THIS MORNING AND STILL
            SNOWING PRESENTLY.

&&

BMB