Storm Warning 19, NWS Juneau, AK

791 
FZAK67 PAJK 031240
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-040100-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 968 MB STORM FORCE LOW 250 NM WEST OF SITKA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ310-040100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2012 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
25 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
636 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 975 MB LOW IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC NEAR 42N/143W WILL MOVE NORTH TO NEAR 56N/140W 12Z FRI. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW AND WILL LIFT
NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY AROUND 00Z AND TO AROUND PAJN BY
06Z AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BY 12Z. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
SOUTH OF THE LOW THROUGH OUR COASTAL WATERS.

 THERE IS A LARGE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND MAX THAT REACHES OVER
80 KT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW AND A SMALL BUT EQUALLY
STRONG MAX IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRENT OF THE LOW AND SECOND WRAP.
THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT STORM FORCE WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ALL OTHER AREAS HAVE GALES. THE HWA FOR
PASI TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPGRADED ALONG WITH ADDING PKZ027-028 WITH
GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH EXPECTED. OTHER ZONES CARRYING A STRONG WIND
HEADLINE FOR GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

 AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL WINDS EASE AND BACK TO NE.
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RAINFALL RATES MAINLY
WILL BE IN 0.1-0.2 INCHES PER HOUR STARTING LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTH AND SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS BY EVENING. SOME COLD
AIR WILL DRAIN BACK INTO NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH TEMPS
FALLING FROM MORNING HIGHS AND WILL SUPPORT SNOW IN PAHN-PAGY
WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD COULD 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND HAVE
ISSUED A WSW FOR THE HIGHWAYS TONIGHT. A MIX OF RA/SN IN PAYA AND
PAJN BY THIS EVENING. A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP MOVES TO
COASTAL AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WITH A DEEP SNOW
PACK ALREADY ON GROUND AND DITCHES AND STORM DRAINS COVERED WITH
SNOW COULD SEE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE ON THE RISE...AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BE HIGH.

 ONCE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH WIND GOES SE AND INCREASE TO 25 TO
LOCALLY 40 MPH IN PUBLIC AREAS WITH GUSTS 50 AND OVER 65 MPH IN
THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES. IN THE FAR NORTH EXPECT WEAK
NORTHEAST GRADIENT TO OFFSET SOUTHERLY WINDS SO WIND BECOME LIGHT
NORTH. SOUTH WINDS WORK INTO NORTHERN LYNN CANAL RIGHT AT THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.

 USED A GFS NAM BLEND WHICH HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

.LONG TERM...AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A COMPLEX STORM FORCE
LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF AND THEN INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW HAS VERY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ALONG GOOD JET SUPPORT. THERE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPEED OF THE LOW BUT USED THE 06Z GFS AS IT
WAS LIFTING THE LOW A BIT FASTER FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN BUT NOT AS
FAST AS THE EC/UKMET. SO WITH THAT SAID EXTENDED THE HHW FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH NOON FRIDAY AND ISSUED A HHA FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL RANGE FROM 70 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
FOR AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS. THERE IS A VERY STRONG
LLJ AT 850MB OF 70-80KT ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG JET OF 150KT THAT
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WINDS OVER THE
MARINE WATERS WILL INCREASE FROM MAX GALES TO STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WILL START OUT NEAR SMALL CRAFT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT BUT IT WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STORMS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREAS. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE LAND AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY NEED A
HHW DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE RISE.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND BACKS AROUND TO THE NORTH
THROUGH SAT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES FROM THE NORTH SAT
NIGHT AND THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASE
OFFSHORE FLOW.

RAIN WILL BE CATEGORICAL AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL
MOTION AND MOISTURE FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHOWERS
WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND MIX PRECIP WILL TURN
FRIDAY EVENING TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WHILE
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREA WILL REMAIN A MIX OR ALL RAIN. A UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT SO
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TO CAT. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE TROF WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO CANADA.

THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
WARMING ALOFT FROM WAA FROM THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A BIG FOG EVENT FROM MON
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AND WARM AIR ALOFT. THERE
IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY
     FOR AKZ027-028.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ020>022-024-025.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST FRIDAY FOR
     AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ018-019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM AKST FRIDAY
     FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041-042.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-031>035-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

MM/ABJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1023 AM AKST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 AM     SNOW             38 NW HAINES            59.63N 136.21W
02/02/2012  M8.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

RCL