Small Craft Advisory 85, NWS Juneau, AK

246 
FZAK52 PAJK 300627 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
940 PM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-301400-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
 A 988 MB LOW JUST SW OF CAPE DECISION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NE OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE SUN EVENING. A MODERATE
STRENGTH FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN
GULF COAST FROM THE SW ON MON.

$$

PKZ041-301400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
940 PM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT.
SW SWELL LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT. 
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-301400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
930 PM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT.

.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT. SW
SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-301400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
930 PM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. S SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
S SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-301400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT LATE. SEAS
BUILDING TO 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. S
SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-301400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
930 PM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT LATE. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

742 
FZAK52 PAJK 301231
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-310100-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 982 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AK PANHANDLE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$

PKZ041-310100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-310100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-310100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-310100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-310100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN. SNOW LATE. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
154 PM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR SE GULF WILL MOVE NE
ACROSS CENTRAL SE AK THIS EVENING...AND REACH NW BC LATE TONIGHT.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE ERN GULF MON...WITH A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ON THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE ERN GULF AS WELL. USED
A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GEM FOR THEIR GOOD HANDLING OF THE
CURRENT LOW IN THE SE GULF AND THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE ON MON.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH MORE SNOW FALLS OVER THE
N-CENTRAL AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. BASED ON QPF
CONSENSUS OF GEM/ECMWF/UKMET...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER 2+ INCHES OF
SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE PAJN/PAOH/PAGN AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE
IT TAPERS OFF LATER TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WW ADVYS FOR THOSE
ZONES GOING AS IS. PAGS HAS ALSO BEEN SNOWING DECENTLY BUT THEY
WILL DIMINISH EARLIER...SO AM NOT PLANNING ON ANY ADVYS FOR THEM
ATTM. FURTHER N SOME SNOW MAY REACH THE PAHN/PAGY AREAS THIS
EVENING BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. AREAS S OF FREDERICK SOUND
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN ALTHOUGH PAFE HAS BEEN SNOW OR A MIX SO FAR
TODAY BUT TEMPS ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON HYDER IS ONLY SNOWING LIGHTLY WITH
TEMPS NOW ABOVE FREEZING SO THEY SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ONCE SOME WIND GETS IN THERE. MORE PRECIP
WILL COME IN MON WITH NEXT FRONT WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NRN
THIRD AND RAIN OR A MIX OVER SRN AREA. NOT ISSUING ANY WW
HEADLINES FOR THAT SYSTEM RIGHT NOW DUE TO CURRENT HEADLINES AND
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON QPF WITH MON SYSTEM.

 OTHERWISE...WINDS OVER THE NRN AREA WILL BE DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND HEADLINE TO END AS
IS FOR PAGY AREA. WILL HAVE MIN GALE TO START FOR NRN LYNN CANAL
AND SCA FOR SRN LYNN CANAL BUT THEY BOTH SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BY
LATE EVENING. MORE SCA WINDS SHOULD MOVE IN FOR MON WITH THE NEXT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE OVER THE ERN GULF. IF THE LOW IS A
BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST MAY NEED GALES FOR THE
E-CENTRAL AND NE GULF LATER MON.

&&

.LONG TERM...MID AND EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
CONVOLUTED DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODEL RUNS AND MODEL
AGREEMENT, MOSTLY AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT MODEL AGREEMENT IS MUCH
BETTER AS THE OVERALL PICTURE IS WELL REPRESENTED. 500 MB TROUGH
WILL BE DIGGING SE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND NE PACIFIC MID WEEK.
THE HEIGHT PATTER WILL REBOUND BY THE WEEKEND INTO A RIDGE OVER SE
ALASKA WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING OUT OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

AT THE SURFACE, MODEL INCONSISTENCIES SHOWS UP AS EARLY AS WED
WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GULF. THE NAM IS MUCH
FASTER THEN THE OTHER MODELS. 12Z GFS WAS ALSO FASTER THEN THE
12Z EC BUT HAS SINCE SLOWED UP TO NEARLY MATCH THE EC. THE NEW 18Z
GFS HAS ALSO DONE AWAY WITH A SECOND LOW THAT WOULD HAVE FORMED
ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF WED
NIGHT THAT MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS DID NOT HAVE. THIS SEEMS TO
REMAIN THE THEME THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE AS MODELS ARE KEEPING
SOME FEATURES THE SAME WHILE OTHER FEATURES ARE DROPPING IN AND
OUT WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS. OVERALL THE CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE FOR A
FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURS THEN HAVE
SOMETHING COME NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF FRI NIGHT ACCOMPANYING A
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS WANTS THAT SOMETHING TO BE A
RIDGE WITH A WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN IT, WHILE THE EC IS HEADING
TOWARD A 988 MB LOW.

DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE EC FOR MID RANGE UPDATES THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS IT HAD THE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY. FOR
THURS AND BEYOND, HEADED TOWARD THE HPC DATA THAT INCORPORATES
MORE ENSEMBLE DATA INTO ITS CONSTRUCTION TO SMOOTH OUT THE
INCONSISTENCIES PRESENT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE OUT TO THURS THEN DROPS TO BELOW
AVERAGE AFTER THAT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ021-
     024.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-033>036-041>043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051.

&&

RWT/EAL