Small Craft Advisory 813, NWS Juneau, AK

966 
FZAK52 PAJK 290833 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1130 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-291400-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INNER CHANNELS FRI NIGHT AND
WILL PERSIST INTO SAT. A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N INTO KODIAK
ISLAND WHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVES N INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF SAT NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-291400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. W
SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. W
SWELL.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-291400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING
TO 14 FT LATE. W SWELL.
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT
LATE. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-291400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1130 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT
LATE. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-291400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1130 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT
LATE. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT LATE. SW SWELL. RAIN. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-291400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SW
SWELL. RAIN LATE.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WIND
TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON AND TUE...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

989 
FZAK52 PAJK 291230
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 29 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-300100-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 29 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 967 MB STORM FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST GULF SATURDAY
MORNING AND DEEPEN TO 955 MB AS IT APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND ON
SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OUTER
COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.   

$$

PKZ041-300100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 29 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-300100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 29 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-300100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 29 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING
TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-300100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 29 2012 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-300100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 29 2012 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. STRONGEST WINDS
NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 23 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
330 PM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

.SHORT RANGE...QUIETER DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS YESTERDAYS
FRONT IS WELL INTO CANADA AT THIS POINT. A POST FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS WHAT IS PRODUCING THE CURRENT BATCH OF SNOW AND RAIN.
SNOW FALL RATES ARE RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH AS THERE IS NOT
MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE MOMENT. THERE ISN'T MUCH
WARM AIR ADVECTION EITHER AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP SLOWLY
OVER NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOME INNER CHANNEL AREAS
(PETERSBURG, WRANGELL, JUNEAU, GUSTAVUS, HAINES, AND SKAGWAY) ARE
STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE NEXT WEAKER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS ONE IS DRIVEN MORE BY UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
RATHER THEN THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. IT WILL BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THEN WHAT WE ARE GETTING FROM THE CURRENT
TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE SLOW WARMING WILL ALSO CONTINUE
WITH THE AREAS AROUND JUNEAU, GUSTAVUS, AND POSSIBLY PETERSBURG
AND WRANGELL FINALLY GETTING WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH RAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A STRONGER WARM UP BEGINS ONCE THAT
VORTICITY MAX WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN FOR SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SURFACE RIDGE TO FINALLY GET A GRIP AND BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE BRINGING STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH IT. BY SAT AFTERNOON MOST PLACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
INSTEAD OF SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY.

THINGS START GETTING FRISKY OUT IN THE GULF AS A WEAKENING FRONT,
FROM A LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, STALLS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS
TO THE COASTAL GULF ZONES AND GALES TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND
EXTREME NORTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SLACK OFF A
BIT ONLY TO INCREASE YET AGAIN IN THE CENTRAL GULF AS ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT COMES NORTHWARD SWALLOWING THE STALLED FRONT AS IT
COMES SAT AFTERNOON.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING PERIOD BUT THEN START DIVERGING ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT
NORTHWARD MOVING LOW ON SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS WERE IN TWO CAMPS
THIS MORNING WITH THE ECMWF/NAM FAVORING A WEAKER, TWO CENTER LOW
WITH A FARTHER EAST TRACK WHILE THE GFS/UK/GEM/SREF WENT FOR A
STRONGER SINGLE LOW WITH A TRACK FARTHER WEST. FAVORED THE SECOND
CAMP ESPECIALLY WHEN THE LATER RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE NAM
SWITCHED SIDES. DECIDED ON A BLEND TO THE NAM THROUGH SAT MORNING
THEN SWITCHED TO GFS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE
NEXT FRONT INCREASES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM...
PATTERN HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT STABLE IN THAT A SOUTH COMPONENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL WIND OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL PERSIST FOR A WEEK. THIS
IS DUE TO THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MAJOR UPPER LOW PERSISTING OVER
THE BERING SEA. NATURALLY THE DETAILS OF SYSTEMS IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT ARE MESSY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING. OVERALL
THEME IS TO FORECAST RAIN AT LOWER LEVELS INSTEAD OF SNOW...WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME STRONG WIND AT TIMES PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
OUTER COAST AND OFFSHORE.

NOW FOR THOSE MESSY DETAILS: 1)CERTAIN OF A LONG FETCH TO BUILD BIG
SEAS IN THE EASTERN GULF FOR A WEEK. EXPECT A MONDO-BIG SW SWELL IN
THE 20S AND WOULDNT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE 30 FT. 2) PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGH PARTICULARLY SUN THRU TUE. AGAIN CERTAIN OF A
LONG SOUTH FETCH AIMED AT CORDOVA SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT CALLED AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. SOME WOULD CALL IT A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS. MODELS
SHOW A COUPLE OF INCHES OF WATER HEADED FOR PAYA. TIMING IFFY. 3)
COORDINATED WITH ANCHORAGE ON A BARRIER JET ALONG THE GULF COAST
ROUGHLY CAPE YAKATAGA EARLY SUN FOR STORM FORCE. 4) KEEP AN EYE ON
FREEZING LEVELS FOR A POSSIBLE SNOW DUMP NORTHERN HIGHWAYS. NOTHING
AT ALL CERTAIN YET. BEST GUESS WOULD BE WED NITE OR THU. 5)MELTING
WILL NOT IN ANY WAY BE EXTREME THOUGH ONE MAY SEE SOME BIG PUDDLES
FOR SNOW-FILLED DRAINS.

USED 28/12Z AK-GFS-40 FOR THE OPERATIONAL MODEL TODAY. LIKED HPC
GUIDANCE TODAY FOR THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW DAYS 4 THRU 8.
CONFIDENCE HIGH IN GENERAL PATTERN BUT AT BEST MODERATE IN THE
DETAILS PARTICULARLY TIMING. WARMER AND WETFOOT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-053.
&&

EAL/JC