Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2012
Small Craft Advisory 620, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this small craft advisory at Oct 26, 2012, 4:00 AM AKDT. It was in force for 48 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 26, 2012, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 28, 2012, 4:00 AM AKDT
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
393 FZAK52 PAJK 261138 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-270100- 400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. $$ PKZ041-270100- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012 .TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. .TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. $$ PKZ042-270100- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012 .TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TONIGHT...NE WIND BECOMING 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. $$ PKZ043-270100- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. $$ PKZ051-270100- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012 .TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SAT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ052-270100- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012 .TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. .SAT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$
4 follow-up statements
331 FZAK52 PAJK 262323 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-271400- 400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO DIXON ENTRANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. $$ PKZ041-271400- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. $$ PKZ042-271400- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. .SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$ PKZ043-271400- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. .SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ051-271400- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. .SAT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. .SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ052-271400- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. .SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. $$
626 FZAK52 PAJK 271135 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-280100- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. $$ PKZ041-280100- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 .TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$ PKZ042-280100- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 .TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$ PKZ043-280100- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 6 FT. .TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. .SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ051-280100- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ052-280100- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 .TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .SUN...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. .SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. $$
424 FZAK52 PAJK 272326 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-281400- 400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT S TO THE NORTHERN B.C. THROUGH MON NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER HAIDA GWAII SAT NIGHT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT. $$ PKZ041-281400- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 .TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. $$ PKZ042-281400- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 .TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. $$ PKZ043-281400- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. $$ PKZ051-281400- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. $$ PKZ052-281400- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 .TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT. .SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. .MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. .TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. $$
161 FZAK52 PAJK 281132 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-290100- 400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT S TO NORTHERN B.C. THROUGH MON NIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NE OVER HAIDA GWAII SUN NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THERE BY LATE MON. OUTLOOK...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF MON NIGHT. $$ PKZ041-290100- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012 .TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SW SWELL. .TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$ PKZ042-290100- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012 .TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. $$ PKZ043-290100- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012 .TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. .TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. $$ PKZ051-290100- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012 .TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. .TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$ PKZ052-290100- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012 .TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. .TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. .MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. .TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 25, 4:34 PM AKDT, 11 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 25, 4:34 PM AKDT, 11 hours 26 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
434 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING 978 MB LOW
NEAR 50N/150W WILL SEND A WEATHER FRONT AN WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW
TO JUST SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII TONIGHT. THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO
DIXON ENTRANCE FRIDAY MORNING AS IT BECOMES SHEARED APART. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
ON FRIDAY.
A MODERATE NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE GALE FORCE NORTH
WINDS FOR LYNN CANAL WITH SOLID SMCR FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF
FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO SEE A CRITICAL LEVEL DEVELOP OVER THE JUNEAU
AREA WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A MOUNTAIN WAVE TO FORM. WILL
KEEP A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR DOWNTOWN AND DOUGLAS THROUGH
FRIDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS THICKEN UP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION
OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA ALONG DIXON ENTRANCE. LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE
DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP HOWEVER THE LOW DEW POINTS COULD
ALLOW WET BUILD TEMPERATURES TO DROP LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
AND WILL KEEP PRECIP AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CLOUDS AND
CHANCE OF PRECIP PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
USED THE NAM TO UPDATE GRIDS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS FOR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT SEVERAL WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE SETTING UP
FOR A TAKU WIND EVENT FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SLOWLY DOWN FROM THE YUKON AND INDUCE A
GOOD WESTERLY FLOW AT LEVELS ABOVE 500 MB. THE PATTERN ALL WEEK
HAS BEEN STRONG CROSS-BARRIER FLOW AT THE SURFACE COMING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND THAT CONTINUES TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. THUS THE INTRODUCTION OF A REVERSE FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES THE CHANCES THAT HIGH WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS THE 12Z GFS WAS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE
TROUGH PROGRESSION TO THE SOUTH AND THUS HAD A SHORTER WINDOW OF
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT THAN OTHER MODELS. OVERALL THE SURFACE
GRADIENT IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR HEALTHY NORTHERLIES ACROSS THE
INSIDE CHANNELS ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT IN MOST MARINE PASSAGES.
STRONG GUSTS WILL LOCALLY AFFECT GAPS SUCH AS TAKU RIVER AND
DISENCHANTMENT BAY.
THE OTHER ISSUE WAS THE ADVANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH A FRONT THAT
MORE AND MORE LOOKS QUASI STATIONARY...COMING FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE TREND IN THE MODELS FROM 12Z TO 18Z
SEEMS TO BE TO LIMIT ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH FROM YUKON AND SHUNTING
ITS NORTHERN PROGRESS PARTICULARLY BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STILL
PREFERRED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS FAR AS
ANGOON AND THE TAKU RIVER AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS IS FAIR AS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SINCE
COOL...DRY AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE...THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SNOW WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NEAR SEA LEVEL BUT WILL CHANGE TO
RAIN IN MOST SEA LEVEL LOCATIONS QUICKLY AFTERWARDS.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY A WEAK LOW FORMING OFF THE COAST OF HAIDA
GWAII WILL USHER THE SOUTHERN BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO BC. MEANWHILE A LEE SIDE LOW WILL FORM IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION EAST INTO YAKUTAT
BY MIDWEEK. LATE NEXT WEEK A STRONG SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE INTO
THE GULF FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WILL LIKELY BRING SOUTHEAST MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY APPROPRIATE LEVELS OF PRECIPITATION FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER.
MOST ALL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...SO RELIED ON A COMBINATION OF
GFS...NAM...AND EC FOR THE MID RANGE AND LEANED HEAVILY ON NEW HPC
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR AKZ025.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AKZ025.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-034>036-043.
&&
MM/JWAThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 4:00 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 60 hr | |
| Oct 25, 4:00 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 6 days | |
| Oct 26, 4:00 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 36 hr | |
| Oct 26, 4:40 AM AKDT | High Wind Warning | AJK | 38 hr |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.