Small Craft Advisory 615, NWS Juneau, AK

519 
FZAK52 PAJK 231139
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-240100-
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WED WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. 

$$

PKZ041-240100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-240100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-240100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT.  SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-240100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-240100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

132 
FZAK52 PAJK 232316
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-241400-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WED. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON WED. 

$$

PKZ041-241400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-241400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-241400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-241400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-241400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. STRONGEST WINDS
SOUTHERN HALF. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTHERN HALF. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

150 
FZAK52 PAJK 241128
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-250100-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THU. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-250100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-250100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-250100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-250100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-250100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTHERN HALF. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTHERN HALF. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

069 
FZAK52 PAJK 242355
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-251400-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THU. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-251400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-251400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-251400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-251400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN DRY BAY AND
YAKUTAT BAY. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN DRY
BAY AND YAKUTAT BAY. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-251400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTHERN HALF. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
348 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTS A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH ANCHORS
OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON AND AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM A LOW NEAR
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. A FEW MID CLOUDS DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOST PANHANDLE. LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS WITH PEAK WINDS OF
35 TO 40 MPH. SOLID GALE PREVAIL OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND
SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER CROSS SOUND INTO THE CENTRAL OUTSIDE
WATERS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. AS
DAYTIME INSOLATION INCREASES...TEMPERATURES SLOWLY SOAR UP INTO
THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE THE ARCTIC
AIR MAKES A DIRECT CONTACT. THE EARLY AFTERNOON MERCURY READINGS
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY AND HAINES.

 MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. REFRESHED
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE NAM FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE OVERALL CHANGES WERE MINOR. BETWEEN THE ANCHORED
HIGH AND AN INVERTED TROUGH...NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT AND MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR AND ALONG INTERIOR PASSES. KEPT
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING COASTAL
WATERS...INCLUDING YAKUTAT BAY. THE STRONG WINDS IN DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS WILL EASE DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A SHARPLY DEFINED UPPER
LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BERING SEAS
SOUTH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. BOTH
ALSO DEPICT THIS FEATURE MORPHING INTO A SHORT LIVED REX BLOCK AS
A VIGOROUS, SHARPLY DEFINED SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM
KAMCHATKA TUESDAY EVENING. MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN ON
SATURDAY WHEN GFS RE-ESTABLISHES AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK WITH
AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BERING STRAIT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. AT THIS SAME TIME, ECMWF DROPS AN UPPER LOW SOUTH
FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA AND MERGES THIS LOW WITH THE KAMCHATKA LOW
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST GULF ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL, IN TURN,
PUMP UP A UPPER RIDGE DOWN STREAM OVER THE PANHANDLE. OPTED FOR A
SOLUTION THAT WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD AND THIS IS IN KEEPING WITH HPC TODAY. EARLIER PORTIONS OF
THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST HEAVILY BIASED TOWARDS THE 12Z NAM FOR
PRESSURE AND WIND.

STRONG NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND STRONG GUSTY CONDITIONS COMING OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES ALONG STEPHENS PASSAGE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS A RESULT OF THE ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM THE
CANADIAN SIDE OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT
NIGHT. NO POP IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THIS COMING WEEKEND WHEN THE
NEXT WEATHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA. BIG
QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO
PRODUCE SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN. RIGHT NOW, HAVE DAY TIME RAIN AND
NIGHT TIME SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR.

TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED WITH BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND GFS. SNOW LEVELS
REFLECT GFS WET BULB TEMPS. POP AND QPF FROM ECMWF. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031-036-051.

&&

AHN/FRITSCH