Small Craft Advisory 601, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
413 PM AKDT WED OCT 17 2012

.SHORT TERM...VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTER OVER THE AREA
CURRENTLY. YAKUTAT IS SEEING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW TODAY WITH
AROUND 6 TO 7 INCHES ALREADY REPORTED AT YAKUTAT WSO AND SNOW IS
CONTINUING. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR YAKUTAT
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING AS THE E TO NE WINDS IN YAKUTAT DO NOT
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL SHIFT TO THE SE ANY TIME SOON AND PRECIP
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. SO SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
PRECIP RATES TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BAND
PASSES BY. IN OTHER PLACES RAIN CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE WITH TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR SNOW. WINDS ARE
COMING UP DOWN SOUTH WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. HYDABURG HAS
ALREADY GUSTED TO 39 KT THIS MORNING AND KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE
ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. STRONG WIND HEADLINES ARE UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR BOTH AREAS.

 FOR TONIGHT A LOW WILL BE QUICKLY HEADING OVER HAIDA GWAII THIS
EVENING. BRINGING DOWN THE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS
IT GOES BY. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO A W OR NW ALONG THE
OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
HEADS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE VERY STRONG ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS THE LOW IS LOOKING TO BE WEAKER AND A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THIS WILL
ALSO TAKE THE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING THE HEAVIER
PRECIP TO THE PANHANDLE WITH IT. RAIN SHOULD START TAPERING OFF
THIS EVENING AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN YAKUTAT.

 MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS LOW. THERE WAS A
SPLIT EVIDENT BETWEEN THE 0Z EUROPEAN MODELS AND THE 0 AND 6Z
NCEP MODELS. THE EUROPEAN MODELS WERE STILL GOING THE FARTHER
NORTH AND STRONGER APPROACH WHILE THE NCEP MODELS WERE GOING THE
SOUTHERN WEAKER APPROACH. 12Z RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE
SHIFTING THEIR STANCE AND HEADED TOWARD WHAT THE NCEP MODELS ARE
SAYING TODAY. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z NAM
FOR FORECAST UPDATES TODAY.

 INTO TOMORROW, LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO LINGER AND
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. ON SHORE FLOW AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWING UP IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AGAIN
EARLY THURS AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -6 DEGREES C. THERE ARE
SOME SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE LOW BUT THERE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS THE ONE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIP AND
WIND WILL BE LIGHT. THE ONLY PLACES THAT MIGHT SEE AN
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WOULD BE YAKUTAT, HAINES, AND SKAGWAY WITH
UP TO AN INCH TO MAYBE 3 AT YAKUTAT AND AT WHITE PASS ON THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY EARLY THURS. OTHER AREAS IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN AT MOST.

 WINDS, ONCE THEY CALM DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATER THIS
EVENING SHOULD BE LESS THEN 20 KT IN MOST PLACES. THE ONLY
EXCEPTIONS MAY BE IN THE GULF, WHERE SW FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN
GULF LOW MAY REACH 25 KT IN THE OFFSHORE.

.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THINKING
FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS REMAINS THE SAME. FIRST COLD AIR OUTBREAK OF
THE SEASON IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
CAA BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SETUP EXPECTING STRONG
OUTFLOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS IN MANY OF THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS THIS WEEKEND. MAX SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MIGRATES TO THE SOUTHEAST GULF THROUGH
SATURDAY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD
AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW SNOW TO MIX
IN WITH RAIN IN THE SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT SEA LEVEL WITH A
FEW INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAYS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS OFFSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. CLEARING SKIES WILL
PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOW AND MID 20S UP NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE
SOUTH.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL. USED BLEND OF THE EC/NAM
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO HPC
TOWARDS THE LATTER PORTIONS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027-028.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031-034-035-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042-051-052.

&&

EAL/TPS

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