Small Craft Advisory 526, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
355 PM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE IS SHOWERS MOVING
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE FROM A UPPER TROF MOVING
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE PRECIP FREE WITH THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE FROM THE SOUTH BUT THERE IS STRONGER WINDS OVER
NORTH LYNN TO SMALL CRAFT AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH NEAR SKAGWAY AND
HAINES. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
PERSISTING OVER THE SE AK.

THE BIG STORY FOR THE TONIGHT INTO SUN WILL BE A STRONG GALE
FORCE FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTH GULF. THE FRONT WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AND AS THE FRONT DRIFTS EAST HEAVY RAIN
AND WIND WILL MOVE OVER THE YAKUTAT AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON. RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL JUST OFF SHORE BY THE AFTERNOON SO RAIN WILL BE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE CROSS SOUND AREA AND THEN JUST A CHANCE IN THE ICY STRAIT
AREA. THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS WILL REMAIN DRY AND THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL AGAIN SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ON SUN.
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL AGAIN SEE PATCHY FOG
FORMING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING. THE FOG MAY BE
DENSE BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AND
SPECIAL PRODUCES.

WIND WISE...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE GULF TO MAX GALES
WITH CLOSE TO STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR CAPE SUCKLING LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. THESE GALES WILL SPREAD INTO THE NE GULF BY THE
SUN AFTERNOON WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM THE EAST NEAR CROSS
SOUND. THE YAKUTAT AREA WILL SEE EAST WINDS IN THE MORNING TO 10
MPH BUT WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A STRONG LLJ OF 55KT THE SE WIND
WILL INCREASE TO BE 20 TO 30 WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. SO WITH THAT
SAID WILL HAVE A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR SUN AFTERNOON. THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT IN THE MORNING BUT AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENS UP WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15KT WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT WINDS CONTINUING OVER
NORTHERN LYNN THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL THERE WAS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE AND
CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF THE NAM/EC FOR THE NEXT 24HRS. THERE
IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE FRONTAL BAND WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FLATTENS AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
LEAVING A LONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TO SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL BE HEADED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS
LOW MOVE TO NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THE RIDGE SHARPENS ALONG THE
PANHANDLE... THIS IS PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE
DEEPENING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE BERING SEA.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AND THE ONE ALOFT STILL IS FORECAST TO HOLD
IN PLACE TO ROUGHLY NEXT WEEKEND. AS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHERLY
FRONTAL BAND WILL BE STALLED AND AIMED AT THE SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL
AREA. THINK ONE OF THE ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN WILL
MANAGE TO SNEAK EAST... AND HOW FAR THE CLOUDS WILL TO. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTER THERE IS A WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TOO
SO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COULD BE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR
LOW 70S AROUND MID WEEK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PACKAGE... MAINLY BECAUSE BLOCKING RIDGE LOOKS TO BE HOLDING TO
THE WEEKEND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051>053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-042.

&&

ABJ/BEZENEK