Small Craft Advisory 522, NWS Juneau, AK

479 
FZAK52 PAJK 142046 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1246 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-151500-
1246 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND
SE AK THROUGH SAT. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF FRI NIGHT. OUTLOOK. A STRONGER COMPLEX
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. 

$$

PKZ041-151500-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1246 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-151500-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1246 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-151500-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1246 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING. S SWELL.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-151500-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1246 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-151500-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1246 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

263 
FZAK52 PAJK 150003
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-151400-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND
SE AK THROUGH SAT. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF FRI NIGHT. OUTLOOK. A GALE FORCE WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE EASTERN GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ041-151400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012 

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-151400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012 

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. W
SWELL LATE. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-151400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012 

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-151400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-151400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY THE LATE EVENING
NEAR SHORE THEN DIMINISHING LATE. OTHERWISE S WIND INCREASING TO 20
KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT
LATE. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

368 
FZAK52 PAJK 151131
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-160100-
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO  BUILD OVER THE FAR EASTERN
GULF AND SE AK ON SAT. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GULF AND PANHANDLE SAT. A GALE FORCE WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE
EASTERN GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ041-160100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012 

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-160100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012 

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. W
SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL
LATE. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-160100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-160100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW
SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-160100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN. PATCHY FOG LATE. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
500 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

.SHORT TERM...FAST MOVING CYCLOGENETIC SYSTEM IS MOVING ONSHORE
THE VICINITY OF SITKA AT THIS TIME.

 SEVERAL METHODS HAVE POINTED TO THIS BEING A STRONGER SYSTEM
THAN THE MODELS WERE DEPICTING (ALBEIT THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY
THE GFS ARE CATCHING UP). THE FIRST DATA POINTING TO THIS BEING A
STRONGER SYSTEM WERE A CLOUD-DRIFT WIND LAST NIGHT JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT OVER SITKA WITH A 145KT, WITH NO MODEL VALUES ABOVE
110 KT. THE SECOND WAS FOR 12Z THICKNESS GRADIENT DATA RETRIEVED
FROM THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM BIORKA ISLAND WITH THICKNESS
GRADIENTS OVER 1/3 STRONGER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS.

 BUOY 46184 HAS BEEN IN A GOOD LOCATION AND AS OF NOON THE LOW
SHOULD BE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 990S WITH A TRACK TO THE NE AND
PASSING NORTH OF THE BOUY. THE LOW IS WITHIN MESOSCALE DISTANCE
OF THE BOUY, BUT A SURFACE WIND 21017G21KT HAS ENOUGH WIND SPEED
TO INDICATE THE LOW PASSING SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE N AND NOT
ESSENTIALLY OVER THE BOUY.

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID
RANGE AND THERE IS GROWING AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE BIG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE THE NAM AND EC HAVE BEEN CONSTANT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING
FROM RUN TO RUN. SO WITH THAT SAID DID NOT USE THE GFS WHILE
MAINLY DID CHANGES TO THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND OVER THE
GULF. THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FOR NEXT WEEK USED THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH THERE IS
GROWING AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER AS
A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDS NORTH INTO THE GULF. ALONG
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WARMER AIR MAY MOVE OVER SE AK AND BRING
TEMPS UP TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND
SCATTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY. THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SEE
MORE STEADY RAIN MOVE OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF AND
SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN LYNN AS THERE WILL BE MIN
SMALL CRAFT WINDS. THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND SHARPEN UP
AS A STRONG FRONT DRIFTS EAST FROM THE WESTERN GULF. SO WITH THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE SHOWERS OVER THE FORCAST AREA WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

THE BIG WEATHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN GULF SAT
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY SPREAD SE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WEATHER FRONT WILL
PRODUCE A STRONG BARRIER JET OF 50KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
GALES WILL SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE NE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS THE FRONT DRIFTS OUT OF
THE AREA AND WEAKENS. THE RAIN FROM THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE JUICY
SIDE AND THE NORTHERN GULF AREAS COULD SEE RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES A
RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS
WILL SEE AN INCREASE FROM THE SE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME E/W
CHANNELS WILL SEE GALES TO MAX SMALL CRAFT WINDS.

LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023-027-028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033-035-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-031-032-034-043.

&&

JBT/ABJ