Small Craft Advisory 511, NWS Juneau, AK

430 
FZAK52 PAJK 110646 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1046 PM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-120100-
1046 PM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY AND SPREAD
VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-120100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1046 PM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-120100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1046 PM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-120100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1046 PM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-120100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1046 PM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-120100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1046 PM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

778 
FZAK52 PAJK 111150
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-120100-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY AND SPREAD
VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AND THE FRONT WILL STALL WHILE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.  

$$

PKZ041-120100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND BECOMING 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO
10 FT LATE. AREAS OF FOG IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-120100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO
10 FT LATE. AREAS OF FOG IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-120100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING
TO 9 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-120100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND BECOMING 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO
8 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-120100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. AREAS OF FOG LATE. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

266 
FZAK52 PAJK 112324
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-121400-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GULF WILL SPREAD HEAVY
RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE
NORTH PACIFIC.    

$$

PKZ041-121400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-121400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-121400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-121400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-121400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
324 PM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...CALM BEFORE THE STORM. SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF A LOW THAT
DISSIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE EARLY TODAY. NORTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS CLEARED OUT THE CLOUDS FOR
THE MOST PART OVER WATER. PUBLIC ZONES AND INNER CHANNELS HAVE
REMAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME VERY NICE SUN BREAKS AS WELL. CLOUD BASES STARTED OUT VERY
LOW THIS MORNING BUT HAVE RISEN AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE REMAINED MARGINAL VMC FOR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT OVERALL SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS VMC AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR TEMPS TO GET
MUCH ABOVE THE MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FOR MOST INNER CHANNEL LOCATIONS. WITH
THE GROUND SATURATED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION, POTENTIAL IS HIGH
FOR FOG TONIGHT AND HAVE WRITTEN THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON TAFS.
NOT EXPECTING AND LARGE AREAS OF DENSE FOG, BUT AVIATION
ACTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW MORNING IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ACT TO STABILIZE THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION TOMORROW WILL TRANSITION
FROM SHOWERS BACK TO RAIN. THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE BEFORE THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT
FRONTAL RAINS WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO SET UP EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN, WITH AN
EASTERLY BARRIER JET BEGINNING TO FOR WEST OF ICY BAY LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS NOT SO MUCH OF AN ISSUE, BUT RAINS THAT BEGIN TOMORROW
WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME VERY HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY ON IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.

USED NAM FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND. BLENDED ECMWF, GEM,
AND GFS FOR POP AND QPF. TEMPS ADJUSTED WITH BIAS CORRECTED SREF
AND GFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE ONSET OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES IS STILL SET BEGIN
LATE TUE NIGHT, AND THE MOST PERSISTENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN CLARENCE STRAIT WITH GALE FORCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE OUTSIDE WATERS FROM ICY CAPE TO
CAPE SUCKLING. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE, AND A GALE FORCE JET-
FRONT SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE INTO THE GULF EARLY TUE WITH A STRONGER
THAN USUAL WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SE ACROSS THE
GULF ABOUT 200 NM SW OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST TUE NIGHT AND WILL
PROVIDE THE UPGLIDE LIFT OF AN AIRMASS OF SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN AND
THEREFORE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE SOURCE REGION FOR THE AIRMASS
THAT WILL BE RUNNING UP OVER THE WARM FRONT IS READILY TRACED TO
ABOUT 1800 NM SW UPSTREAM USING THE WV AND IR IMAGES.

MODELS: THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF STILL HOLDS
WELL THROUGH THU. THE GFS HAS A DISTINCT FRONTAL WAVE BECOMING
CYCLOGENETIC BUT A SMOOTHED OPEN WAVE WAS RETAINED AS PER THE
ECMWF MODEL AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

FRITSCH/JBT