Small Craft Advisory 490, NWS Juneau, AK

513 
FZAK52 PAJK 040452 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
852 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-042300-
852 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA MON EVENING. AN
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN BY TUE MORNING. A RIDGE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE TUE.

$$

PKZ041-042300-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
852 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL.
RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-042300-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
852 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. W
SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-042300-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
852 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
S SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
W SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-042300-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
852 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT LATE. SEAS
8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SW WIND 25 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-042300-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
852 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT LATE.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SW WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

733 
FZAK52 PAJK 041140
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-050100-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING TROUGH OVER SE AK WILL DISSIPATE TUE AFTERNOON. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE THROUGH
WED MORNING.  

$$

PKZ041-050100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012 

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-050100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-050100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-050100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-050100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN LATE.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
339 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...WET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS SOME WEAK
FRONTAL BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP AND LESS
THEN 20 KT WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR. THE
EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND SKAGWAY WHERE S
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT HAVE BEEN BLOWING ALL MORNING, AND THE NORTHERN
GULF WHERE A BARRIER JET HAS CAUSED MIN GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND
THE AREA OF CAPE SUCKLING AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS ALONG THE REST OF
THE NORTHERN GULF.

INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, ONSHORE FLOW AND A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. POPS DO NOT LESSEN
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN HALF
AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY FINALLY MOVE INTO CANADA.
HELPING THE DRYING TREND OUT TOMORROW IS A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE THAT APPEARS TO BE STRONGER
AND SHARPER THEN THE ONE THAT WAS TRYING TO BUILD BEFORE THE
CURRENT SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
HELPING TO PRODUCE THE BARRIER JET RECEDES INTO CANADA. LYNN CANAL
AND SKAGWAY WILL BE ANOTHER STORY. SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALREADY
BLOWING AT ABOUT 20 KT CURRENTLY WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING
AS A LOW FORMS UNDER THE EXIT REGION OF A WEAK 500 MB JET STREAK
ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30 KT LATER TONIGHT AS THE SKAGWAY TO JUNEAU GRADIENT
DECREASES TO -3 MB. WINDS IN THE OTHER NORTH-SOUTH CHANNELS IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER WINDS AS WELL LATER
TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LOW WEAKENS AWAY DUE TO THE LOSS OF ITS UPPER
SUPPORT, BUT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGH AND MAY INCREASE AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TOMORROW. WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS IN MOST PLACES.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TOMORROW.
DECIDED ON USING THE NAM FOR THE DETAILS THAT IS COULD PROVIDE
OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...A FLAT RIDGE WILL BE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT TILTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. NEXT FRONT MOVES TO PAYA AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A FEW DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW. A MODERATELY STRONG FRONT WITH A TRIPLE
POINT LOW WEST OF CDE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

ONSHORE FLOW OVER FLAT RIDGE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD SEE BREAKS IN CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES
THROUGH.

NEXT FRONT MOVES TO YAKUTAT AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS
UNDER A 140 KT SW JET MAX AND HAS DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT A BARRIER
TYPE JET TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH WILL INCREASE ESE
WINDS TO GALE FORCE. THIS WEAKENS TO SMCR FOR COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FOR YAKUTAT
ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT DROPS SOUTH AND PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
SOUTHERN.

BEHIND THIS FRONT ANOTHER FLAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF WHICH
KEEPS ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE
ARE AT LEAST 2 SMALL TROUGHS THAT PUSH ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF FOR THIS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. USED NAM TO UPDATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE
TO LATER PERIODS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-036-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

EAL/MM