Small Craft Advisory 47, NWS Juneau, AK

277 
FZAK52 PAJK 180016
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-181400-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TUESDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL RECEDE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-181400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-181400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-181400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6
FT OVERNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-181400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-181400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

289 
FZAK52 PAJK 181257
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-190100-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO B.C. THROUGH THU NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-190100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY..

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-190100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-190100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-190100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-190100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
630 AM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE YUKON EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
GENERATING OUTFLOW CLOUDS FROM THE PANHANDLE COASTAL AREAS INTO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS COLD AIR OUTFLOW EXPANDS SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE WEAK LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLANDS. NEAR THE
NORTHERN TIP OF THE COLD FRONT...A WEAK LOW FORMS AND THE INFRA
RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD CIRCULATION SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF. THE COLD AIR OUTBREAK
CONTINUED LAST NIGHT AT ITS FULL STAGE. AS THE HIGH EXPANDING ITS
TERRITORY SOUTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY MORE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
GRADIENT.

 MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG HIGH OVER THE
YUKON CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR TODAY AND
GAVE HEAVIER WEIGHTING TO THE NAM SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT. A
DEVELOPING STORM FAR SOUTH IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND MAKE A GENERAL TENDENCY TO LOWER THE
PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS ALSO BRING A
SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE RESIDING COLD AIR THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY EASE BUT
STILL COLD ENOUGH TO BRING THE MERCURY READING TO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE INTENSELY
COLD UPPER LOW COMPLEX FROM THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
TO SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THEN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF AK. AS
THE TROUGH FROM THIS LOW PUSHES WESTWARD THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE TO
WESTERLY ONSHORE. THIS WILL HELP INITIATE THE RETURN OF HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE PANHANDLE. ONCE THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH GULF SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY FRIDAY AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TREND BUT DIFFERENCES
GROW WITH TIME OVER THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW IN THE
GULF. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MAINLY DUE TO POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES
WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT
EVENTUALLY AFFECTS THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY SNOW. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SURFACE LOWS
DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-031-053.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-043-051>053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031-032-034>036-041-042.

&&

AHN/CFD