Small Craft Advisory 411, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
345 PM AKDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG THE
PANHANDLE TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED
EAST AHEAD OF THE WEATHER FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION. THE RIDGE HAS SUPPRESSED OR MOVED THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
LAST NIGHTS TROUGH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. SUBSIDENCE IS CAUSING
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD OVER WITH THE BEST CLEARING GOING ON OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

FLOW PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN SOME NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON
THE OUTSIDE FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE GULF. 20 TO 30 KT ARE
DEVELOPING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA ALONG THE WEST BORDER OF
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

PARTIAL CLEARINGS SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOCAL PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
BE SPREADING BACK INTO THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
WITH THE LAST AREA TO SEE THE INCREASE IS THE MISTY FJORD AREA
WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE SEEING A NICE WARM DAY THERE.

RAIN SHOULD BE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND TO THE BARANOF COASTLINE BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST
OF INTERIOR PANHANDLE SECTIONS TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...SUNDAY NIGHT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS THEN WEAKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LESSER CHANCES FURTHER
INLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...HELPING TO KEEP THEM DRIER..EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE ZONAL
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING THE MARINE
LAYER OVER THE GULF TO BE PUSHED IN WITH AREAS OF FOG.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOC WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL
PASS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS AND CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THEN THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND SETTLES OVER HECATE STRAIT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF WITH A GENERALLY NWLY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THIS PRESSURE PATTERN THE ISOBARS ARE PARALLEL TO THE
N-S INSIDE CHANNELS WITH LEADS TO GENERALLY LIGHT...OCCASIONALLY
VARIABLE...WINDS. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR NORTHER PORTION
OF LYNN CANAL WHERE THERE WILL STILL BE A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...MAINLY
NEAR SKAGWAY. E-W CHANNELS AND PASSES WILL SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS WITH THE HIGH IN THE GULF AND LOW IN B.C.

THURSDAY A NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE
BERING SEA. THIS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ITS
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR A
WETTING RAIN...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE DIFFERED ON TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE WORDING FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE MINOR
AND MAINLY FOR LOCAL EFFECTS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-033-035-041-042.

&&

BEZENEK/HANNON