Small Craft Advisory 395, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
345 PM AKDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK AND A PERSISTING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE LOW CENTER DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF TOWARD
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE
AREA. SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN RELAXING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND 15 TO 20 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS SLOWLY DIMINISH. NICELY DEFINED RAIN BANDS ARE
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF AND UP TO 35 KNOTS WINDS WITH 9 FEET
SEAS ARE REPORTED NORTHERN MOST OUTSIDE WATERS AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING TROUGH. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST TONIGHT THEN DECREASING FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT SHEARS APART PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT STRONGER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN GULF BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE NAM.

.HYDRO...REPLACED THE FLOOD WATCH LATE THIS MORNING WITH A FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE MENDENHALL LAKE AND RIVE...AND SET THE
EXPIRATION TIME TO 6 PM FRIDAY. REFER "JNUFLSAJK" OR
"WGAK87 PAJK" FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...AFTER THE RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT, WE ENTER SEVERAL DAYS
WITH CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE PRECIPITATION. CHANGES ARE SMALL AND
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

THE SHORT RANGE SECTION ABOVE DISCUSSES TWO FRONTAL BANDS THAT
MOVE NE THROUGH THE EAST GULF, WITH THE LATER ONE ENTERING THE
EASTERN GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND FRONTAL BAND IS
STRONGER AND WILL DELIVER PRECIP AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 0.10 INCH
PER 6 HOURS, WHICH WILL BE HEAVIER THAN THE RATES THAT WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ025.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ043-051.

&&

AHN/JBT