Small Craft Advisory 375, NWS Juneau, AK

964 
FZAK52 PAJK 191926 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1126 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-200100-
1126 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ON
TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.   

$$

PKZ041-200100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1126 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-200100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1126 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-200100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1126 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-200100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1126 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-200100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1126 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...AT 2100 UTC THERE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDCOVER IS
VISIBLE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AK ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT IN
THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST AK SEVERAL LARGE BREAKS HAVE
BEGUN TO OPEN UP. IN AREAS WHERE THE SUN HAS BEEN ABLE TO SHINE
BRIEFLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S BUT
ELSEWHERE AREAS STILL UNDER CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

 A BROAD RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT LOWER SURFACE
PRESSURES IN INTERIOR CANADA WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW
FROM DEVELOPING THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY SEA
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WINDS
SHOULD THEN DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT THE PATTERN IS WEAK SO
SMALL DIFFERENCES MAY HAVE LARGER CONSEQUENCES IN THE WEATHER.

 CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN THE BREAKS AND LOWER ONCE AGAIN
OVER MANY PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DROP OFF.
TEMPERATURES ARE CONTINUING TO WARM ALOFT AND WITH THE WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE A LITTLE THINNER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A FEW MORE BREAKS AND WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

 IN THE YUKON AN ENHANCED BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF THE PANHANDLE. SHORT RANGE MODELS MOVE THE TROUGH
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST SO EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...DRYING TREND STILL IN THE WORKS FOR LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF TUES WILL SLIP SE TO JUST WEST OF HAIDA GWAII WED.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK IT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE S AND E
BEFORE ENDING UP NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND BY END OF THE WEEKEND. WE
WILL BE LEFT IN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WHICH
WILL KEEP THE MAIN JET ENERGY WELL SOUTH AND WEST. THE ONLY THING
TO WORRY ABOUT ARE THE WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
WEAK EASTERLY JET COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH AT THE MOMENT
ARE MOSTLY FORECAST TO BE WEAK.

 AT THE SURFACE, WEAK TO NO FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. ON WED NIGHT A WEAK EASTERLY
WAVE WILL COME THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BRIEFLY BRINGING A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCE OF PRECIP, BUT IT WILL HELP START TO KICK THE
CLOUDS OUT OF THE PANHANDLE ON THURS. BEHIND IT AN INVERTED
TROUGH STARTS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PANHANDLE INCREASING THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. INCREASED SUNSHINE ON FRI AND SAT
ALONG WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH TRYING TO
CANCEL OUT THE SEA BREEZES COULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET TO THEIR
WARMEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR ON FRI AND SAT AT LEAST FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE CONTENDING
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP FROM THE WEAK WAVES COMING FROM THE
EAST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
DOWN THERE WILL BE LESS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONTENTION BETWEEN
THE GFS AND EC ON HOW FAR NORTH THE EASTERLY WAVES WILL COME. THE
EC IS BY FAR THE NORTHERN MOST OF THE TWO, GOING SO FAR AS TO
HAVE A SECOND WEAK WAVE COME THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON
FRI MORNING AND KEEPING THE SOUTH WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS IS MUCH DRYER AND SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS
WEEKEND FORECAST FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS SO I LEANED MORE IN THAT
GENERAL DIRECTION. AS SUCH THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS FOR FRI AND
SAT ARE HIGH (60S AND LOW 70S) BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTH PARTICULARLY ON
SAT. THE SOUTH HAS TO DEAL WITH CHANCE POPS, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE MARINE LAYER COULD STILL THROW A WRENCH
INTO THIS TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD COVER FORECAST BRINGING MORE CLOUD
COVER AND LOWER HIGHS PARTICULARLY TO THE OUTER COAST.

 INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE INVERTED TROUGH
BREAKS DOWN AND CLOUDS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ALONG WITH SOME
LOWER TEMPERATURES. WHETHER THERE WILL BE PRECIP REMAINS TO BE
SEEN AS AGAIN THE EC IS MUCH WETTER THEN THE GFS BRINGING IN SOME
STRONGER WAVES FROM THE EAST.

 MODEL AGREEMENT WAS REASONABLE IN THE MID RANGE BUT STARTING
DEVELOPING SOME DIFFERENCES TOWARD LATE WEEK. EC WAS SUGGESTING A
MUCH WETTER AND CLOUDIER WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS WAS GOING FOR A
DRYER FORECAST. GFS LOOKED TO BE GENERALLY MORE CONSISTENT WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS. LEANED IN FAVOR OF THE
NAM AND EC FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND HPC WITH GFS THROWN IN FOR
THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID WEEK THEN GRADUALLY FALLS TO AVERAGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051.

&&

CFD/EAL