Small Craft Advisory 359, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
307 PM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PANHANDLE
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH RAIN SHOWERS BEING REPORTED FROM THE
CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE INNER CHANNELS...AND WEST OVER THE COASTAL AREA. WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALY LESS THAN 15 MPH BUT THERE ARE
STRONGER WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL WITH MIN SMALL CRAFT WINDS ATTM.

 THE SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER
TROF WEAKENS. THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST A BIT LONGER OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AREAS BUT BY SAT MORNING SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE
DISSIPATED ALL AREAS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
SAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM PAKT TO
PAGY BY THE AFTERNOON.

 THE WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE AREA. THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER
60S OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS THERE WILL BE SOME SEA BREEZE WINDS THAT WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER PAGY
AND LYNN CANAL WITH MIN SMALL CRAFT OVER MARINE AND 15 TO 25 MPH
OVER LAND.

 OVERALL THERE WAS NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. USED A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS GRIDS AND THE LATEST 12Z NAM FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

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 .LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST. A 992 MB GALE APPROACHES THE COAST SUN AND GRADUALLY
TURNS SE MON AND EXITS THE AREA ABOUT TUES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
PREDICTED IN MODELS TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE SLOW
EVOLUTION TO DRIER WEATHER DURING NEXT WEEK.

 GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THE EAST TO WEST FLOW OVER SE AK NOW
WILL CHANGE TO WEST TO EAST FLOW AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE
IMAGERY...ESP IMAGERY OF WATER VAPOR AND PRECIPITATBLE WATER...
SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED WAVY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC. A
SURGE OF MOISTURE WAS WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING GALE FRI
AFTERNOON N OR HAWAII AROUND 40N 160W. I CONTINUED TO COMPROMISE
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND HAVE A GALE FORCE 992 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF CRAIG ON SUNDAY.
SINCE THIS IS COMING FROM THE SUBTROPICS...A WARM AND BREEZY
SOUTHELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OUTER COAST SUNDAY INTO MODAY. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO SWEEP
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SPREAD RAIN FROM THE SOUTH COAST EARLY
SUNDAY TO THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS SUDAY EVENING. THE SURFACE
LOW STALLS AND FILLS OFFSHORE MONDAY BUT STEERS A SECOND WRAP OF
RAIN INLAND. MODELS HAVE THE LOW EXITING TO THE SE OVER HAIDA
GWAII ON TUE. RISING PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATER TUES FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FOR A PERIOD OF
GENERALLY DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-052.

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ABJ/TA