Small Craft Advisory 355, NWS Juneau, AK

998 
FZAK51 PAJK 060524 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
924 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-061400-
924 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN CANADA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A LOW OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF.  

$$

PKZ011-061400-
GLACIER BAY-
924 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 



$$

PKZ012-061400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
924 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-061400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
924 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 



$$

PKZ021-061400-
ICY STRAIT-
924 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 



$$

PKZ022-061400-
CROSS SOUND-
924 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 



$$

PKZ031-061400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
924 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 



$$

PKZ032-061400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
924 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 



$$

PKZ033-061400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
924 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 



$$

PKZ034-061400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
924 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 



$$

PKZ035-061400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
924 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 



$$

PKZ036-061400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
924 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW 10 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

526 
FZAK51 PAJK 061128
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-070100-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE AK WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
WED EVENING AS A LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK ON THU. 

$$

PKZ011-070100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ012-070100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-070100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ021-070100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012 

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...SW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ022-070100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012 

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT SHIFTING TO THE W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ031-070100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ032-070100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT SHIFTING TO THE N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
2 FT OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT 
OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ033-070100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012 

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ034-070100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012 

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ035-070100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012 

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ036-070100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012 

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT SHIFTING TO THE NW LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. 
.THU...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
314 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWEST FROM SOUTHERN
ALBERTA ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE PANHANDLE AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. A 998 MB LOW IS TRACKING EAST
ALONG 50N AND IS EXHIBITING A VERY WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC CLOUD
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORRESPONDING FRONT. PRECIP FROM THIS
FRONT WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA DURING THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AT ISSUE IS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST QPF
VALUES WILL APPROACH THE COAST MOUNTAINS FROM THE EAST THIS
EVENING AND THEN SPILL OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS VICINITY TAKU
INLET OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND GULF COAST.
QPF VALUES NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING TONIGHT OR TOMORROW, BUT
SOUTHEAST ALASKA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE ON THE RISE. LATEST
RIVER SUMMARY FROM THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER HAS THE CHILKAT AND
TAKU RIVERS APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER
RIVER TO WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WILL BE THE STIKINE.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED A HYDROLOGICAL STATEMENT WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST, BUT MAY DO SO TOMORROW IF THE RIVER RISES PROGRESS AS
FORECAST.

BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE NORTH
LIES A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT THE TROUGH AND HIGHEST POP/QPF VALUES TO
THE NORTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE
VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH SOME
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING UNCOMMON WIND DIRECTIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW, SO WIND VARIABILITY EXPECTED TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT FROM A DECISION SUPPORT PERSPECTIVE. ONLY WINDS OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. HAVE EASTERLY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER COASTAL MARINE
ZONES 41 AND 42 DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND ENDING BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHTS LOWS TONIGHT AND COOLER
DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW. AM ALSO NOT EXPECTING TO SEE ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT DUE TO A LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. PREFERRED A BLEND OF GFS
AND ECMWF DUE TO THEIR INITIALIZATION OF JET STREAM
LOCATION/STRENGTH, MID LEVEL MOISTURE, AND POP FIELDS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
RANGE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM THE EAST THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MOST FREQUENT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. QPF VALUES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL GENERATE A BAND OF 20-25 KT
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER AND DECREASING CLOUDS. RIDGING BEGINS
TO BREAKDOWN LATER SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN H5 LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. SPEED AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND
CONFIDENCE DECREASES. DID FAVOR HPC SOLUTION OF A QUICKER AND
DEEPER SOLUTION GENERATING MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERNMOST COASTAL ZONES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
WOULD ALSO RESULT IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE PANHANDLE LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC WAS USED THROUGH 12Z SAT ON MOST FIELDS
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY THE HPC SOLUTION. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING WITH THE
NEXT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

FRITSCH/TPS