Small Craft Advisory 340, NWS Juneau, AK

304 
FZAK52 PAJK 282315
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-291400-
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE N INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TUE. 
THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE GULF COAST BY WED MORNING AND BEGIN TO
WEAKEN. 

$$

PKZ041-291400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012 

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
11 FT. S SWELL LATE. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-291400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012 

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
12 FT. S SWELL LATE. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-291400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012 

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-291400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012 

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-291400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012 

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS LATE. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
138 PM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX LOW OVER THE GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
WILL BECOME AN OPEN TROF BY LATE MON. A WEAK TROF ALONG THE OUTER
COAST WILL DISSIPATE AS ANOTHER TROF MOVES INTO THE SE GULF LATE
TONIGHT AND MON. DID A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM WITH PREVIOUS
GRIDS...MAINLY TO SHARPEN UP THE TROFS OVER THE GULF.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL. AIRMASS HAS BECOME
WEAKLY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO MON. PRECIP WITH THE FIRST TROF ALONG THE
OUTER COAST HAS BECOME SHOWERY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING AS
THE TROF STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG THE OUTER COAST...BUT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE S LATER TONIGHT AND MON AS THE NEXT TROF
MOVES IN. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHEST(LIKELY) POPS FROM THE CENTRAL
COAST SWD AND OVER THE SRN INNER CHANNELS...WITH LOWEST POPS
AROUND PAGY AND PAYA.

 OTHERWISE...THE MOST WIND WILL BE ALONG THE NERN GULF COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS TO CAPE SUCKLING...WITH
15-20 KT E-SE WINDS EXPECTED. ALSO...NRN LYNN CANAL WILL SEE UP
TO 20 KT THERE BOTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MON AFTERNOON.
SEAS WILL BE AROUND 8 FT EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE SERN GULF THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...SO WILL START MARINE ZONES 41 AND 42 WITH SCA
DUE TO SEAS. MARINE ZONE 52 HAS SEAS AROUND 8 FT RIGHT NOW BUT AM
EXPECTING THEM TO DROP BELOW 8 FT BY TIME FORECAST STARTS. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THEM JUST IN CASE THEY DO NOT.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...CONTINUED COOL AND DAMP WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STICKS AROUND IN THE
WESTERN GULF. MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
AND EXTENDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SO MOST OF THE SYSTEMS
THAT HEAD TOWARD THE PANHANDLE THIS WEEK WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THEY LOSE THEIR MAIN JET SUPPORT.

 LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE FRONT
FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF ON TUESDAY. EUROPEAN MODELS ARE
PROJECTING A FASTER SPEED TO THE FRONT AS WELL AS GENERATING A
TRIPLE POINT LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF. ALTHOUGH
THE LOCATION OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW IS TRENDING A BIT FARTHER
WEST THEN WHAT THE MODELS WERE SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. THE NCEP
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND ARE SUPPORTING A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED
(ABOUT 2 TO 4 HOURS SLOWER) TO THE FRONT AND DO NOT DEVELOP A
TRIPLE POINT LOW ALONG IT. IN EITHER CASE, ALL MODELS SUPPORT AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE OUTSIDE WATERS
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TUES OR TUES NIGHT DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WHEN IT
WILL OCCUR DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. I AM NOT EXPECTING
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME DUE
TO THE TRIPLE POINT LOW BEING FARTHER WEST THEN SUGGESTED
YESTERDAY BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF GALES IN CLARENCE STRAIT AND
GUSTS JUST BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA IN THE SOUTH DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

 AS FOR THE PRECIP, SHOWERS ON MON NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
STRAIFORM RAIN TUES AND TUES NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERALL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY EXCESSIVE AS
THE FRONT'S TROPICAL CONNECTION IS VERY WEAK. RANGES WILL BE FROM
A TENTH TO 3 TENTHS IN THE NORTH TO 4 TENTHS TO 6 TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

 FARTHER OUT, DAMP CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE PARENT LOW OF
TUESDAY'S SYSTEM SETS UP SHOP IN THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE
EARLY WEEKEND. DEEP SW FLOW ALONG WITH VARIOUS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. FOLLOWING
THAT SOME DISAGREEMENT POKES BACK IN WITH DIFFERENT SUGGESTIONS
ON A LOW COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR
SAT. EC IS STRONGER PLUS FASTER WITH THE LOW AND ALSO SUPPORTS A
STRONGER FRONT AHEAD OF IT. AS SUCH IT IS CALLING FOR A WET SAT
FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE. EC HAS ALSO BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AS
WELL UP UNTIL TODAY'S 12Z RUN WHICH PUSHED THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEAKENED IT. GFS ALSO HAS THIS LOW BUT IT IS MUCH WEAKER,
SLOWER, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS STRONG A FRONTAL BAND RESULTING IN A
DRYER SAT DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW. HPC IS IN
BETWEEN WITH SOME SUGGESTIONS OF BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS.
GENERALLY KEPT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN IN FOR FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.

 MODEL AGREEMENT WAS NOT BAD BUT THERE WERE STILL SOME NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF SOME FEATURES. DECIDED ON A BLEND
TO THE 12Z EC TO REPRESENT THE FRONT COMING INTO THE PANHANDLE ON
TUES AND TUES NIGHT BECAUSE IT SEEMED TO HAVE GOOD CONSISTENCY
FOR IT. GENERALLY TENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF GFS/EC/HPC FOR WED
NIGHT ONWARD AND WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TO HPC BY THE WEEKEND DUE
TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT FAR OUT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

RWT/EAL