Small Craft Advisory 331, NWS Juneau, AK

095 
FZAK52 PAJK 201132
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 20 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-210100-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 20 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE N INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MON. 

$$

PKZ041-210100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 20 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 
6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-210100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 20 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-210100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 20 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-210100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 20 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. RAIN LATE.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-210100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 20 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. RAIN LATE.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

126 
FZAK52 PAJK 202330
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 20 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-211400-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 20 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN
GULF LATE SUN NIGHT THEN BECOME NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH MON. THE
LOW WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN DRIFTING E MON NIGHT TO NEAR HAIDA
GWAII BY WED.  

$$

PKZ041-211400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 20 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 8
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-211400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 20 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 8
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-211400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 20 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING
TO 9 FT LATE. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-211400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 20 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 7 FT. SE SWELL. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-211400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 20 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT LATE IN THE EVENING. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO  8 FT LATE. S SWELL LATE. RAIN LATE.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 7 FT. SE SWELL. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

592 
FZAK52 PAJK 211149
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 21 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 21 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 981 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN
DRIFTING EAST TONIGHT NEARING HAIDA GWAII BY WED.  

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE
MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE
MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE
MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. SE
SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 21 2012 

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. SE
SWELL.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
316 PM AKDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PANHANDLE
UNDER CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF EXTENDING TO THE NW TOWARDS PWS. THERE IS SOME LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND SPOTTY PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
GULF COAST. THE RAIN NEAR PAYA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS AND DRIFTS TO THE WEST. WINDS OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS ARE RELATIVELY LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH MARINE WATERS OF
THE INNER CHANNELS LESS THEN 15 KT. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK
AROUND TO THE NORTH OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND WINDS OVER LAND
WILL BECOME LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF WITH MIN GALES OVER AREA 52 AND SMALL CRAFT
OVER THE REST OF THE EASTERN GULF. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT TO BE MAINLY 20 KT.

 A WEAK WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUN OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF. AS THIS WAVE LIFTS
NORTH RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE SUN MORNING. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL TRACK
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
RAIN TAPERING OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THE REST OF
THE INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR.

 THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS
AND USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE 12Z EC.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
AND A MODERATE WARMING TREND OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS HANDLE THE LOW SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT
WAYS AND THE ECMWF SHOWED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

WITH THE INCOMING LOW...SMALL CRAFT WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS
EXCEPT SOUTHERN MOST OCEAN ENTRANCES FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH HIGHER POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WILL
PRODUCE GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS FOR LOWER
POPS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAND AREAS DUE TO
RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY TO TAPER
OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE.

MODEL SPREAD BECOMES LARGER BY MID WEEK AND THUS LEANED OVER THE
HPC ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF THE ECMWF AND GFS BLEND. THE GENERAL
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME AN OMEGA BLOCK BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE TOWARD THE NEXT WEEKEND FOR GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND ALONG COAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-051.

&&

ABJ/AHN