Small Craft Advisory 32, NWS Juneau, AK

848 
FZAK51 PAJK 121314
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU JAN 12 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-130100-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 12 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE PANHANDLE
ON THURSDAY. A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE SE INTO THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY LATE FRIDAY. OUTLOOK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE YUKON AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
THROUGH SATURDAY.  

$$

PKZ011-130100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 12 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE EVENING. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-130100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 12 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING AND BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO GALE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 45 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 45 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-130100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 12 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 

.FRI...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING AND BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO GALE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-130100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 12 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-130100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 12 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. W
SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUST. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-130100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 12 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING
THEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING AND BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-130100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 12 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-130100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 12 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7...FT
EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5
FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING.

.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE LATE EVENING. SEAS 3
FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS 5
FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-130100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 12 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-130100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 12 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT
NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-130100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 12 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6
FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
416 PM AKST WED JAN 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY REVEAL THAT THE FRONT THAT
WAS BRINGING US ALL THE SNOW, RAIN, AND WIND LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED
INTO CANADA. WE ARE GENERALLY LEFT WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING TO
PUMP WARMER AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE. WITH THE SOUTHERLY PUSH MOST
PLACES IN THE PANHANDLE HAVE WARMED UP ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AND
CONSEQUENTLY HAVE HAD THERE SNOW CHANGE OVER TO, OR MIX WITH
RAIN. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULE ARE HAINES AND SKAGWAY WHERE
UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR HAS REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PTYPE
AS SNOW EVEN THROUGH SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S, AND HYDER
WHICH STILL HAS A SURFACE TEMP IN THE MID 20S.

 FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, PRECIP AND WIND WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
AS A WEAK WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
ADVANCES TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME
TROUBLES WITH THIS WAVE. THE EC AND UK ARE FORMING A WEAK CLOSED
LOW ALONG THE TROUGH AND MOVING IT NORTH TOWARD YAKUTAT. GFS AND
NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEP THE FEATURE AS A OPEN WAVE AND TRACK
IT A BIT FASTER NORTHWARD THEN THE EUROPEAN MODELS. LIKED THE
REPRESENTATION DISPLAYED IN THE EUROPEAN MODELS AS SATELLITE
IMAGES SEEM TO SUPPORT THE STRUCTURE OF THEM BETTER THEN THE NCEP
MODEL. THEY ALSO HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION. IN EITHER CASE, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
SNOW FALLS OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH EASTERLY COMPONENT LATE TONIGHT
TO MIX OR CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW IN SOME INNER CHANNEL
AREAS BUT I EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION AS
SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR THE SNOW TO LAST LONG.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS LIKE ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY, AND HAINES
HIGHWAYS MAY SEE A BIT MORE BUT I STILL EXPECT LESS THEN ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

 WIND WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM, BUT MAINLY FOR AREAS DOWN SOUTH. AS
THE WAVE COMES NORTH, SE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HAVE DECIDED TO POST STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR KETCHIKAN, HYDABURG, AND PORT ALEXANDER FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW FOR GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. WIND AND
PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...MUCH COLDER FOR THIS WEEKEND...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ONSHORE FLOW AND
RAIN/SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A LOW REMAINS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
CHANGING RAIN TO MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE DAY AND DIMINISHING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER
THE YUKON AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SHIFT WE WILL SEE A PATTERN
CHANGE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING
STRONG BY SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH NORTHERN
PASSES. A TAKU WIND EVENT MAY ALSO SET UP WITH THIS PATTERN AND
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
WITH THE WINDS CAUSING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOWS
ACROSS THE NORTH TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WITH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS. TO THE SOUTH HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH
FREEZING. THIS WILL BE A VERY DRY AIRMASS AS WELL WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE AND INDICATE
THAT IT WILL REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. USED A
BLEND OF THE GOING FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...ALTHOUGH
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL CHANGES WERE MINOR. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR
     AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-042-043-051-
     052.

&&

EAL/HANNON