Small Craft Advisory 271, NWS Juneau, AK

159 
FZAK52 PAJK 211131
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
WESTWARD TO SE AK THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK LOW REMAINING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. 

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT SHIFTING TO THE SW LATE. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT LATE. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT SHIFTING TO THE S LATE. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING
TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL LATE. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

343 
FZAK52 PAJK 212329
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-221400-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA OVER SE AK WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-221400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-221400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-221400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-221400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-221400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

130 
FZAK52 PAJK 220638 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1038 PM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-230045-
1038 PM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA OVER SE AK WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-230045-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1038 PM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. S
SWELL.
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-230045-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1038 PM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
S SWELL. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-230045-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1038 PM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 7 FT. S
SWELL.  
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-230045-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1038 PM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. S
SWELL.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-230045-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1038 PM AKDT SAT APR 21 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
327 PM AKDT FRI APR 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A
WEAKENING GALE FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN AK GULF 150 NM WEST OF
CAPE OMMANEY. GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 20 FT WERE REPORTED
IN THE SOUTHEAST AK GULF. AS THE LOW WEAKENS THE WINDS WILL DROP
TO SMALL CRAFT AS SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WEAK BARRIER JET WILL
FORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ADVANCE
LOW BRINGING WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL NEAR CAPE SUCKLING.
FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRODUCED STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE RAIN FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY. AS THE FRONT
MOVES NORTHER WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTH AS RAIN AND
WINDS INCREASING NORTHWARD. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES. EXPECT RAIN OVER THE
ENTIRE PANHANDLE TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR YAKUTAT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE AS THE LOW
ADVANCES TO THE NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT MAY SEE SOME LAGGING NORTHERLY WINDS IN
LYNN CANAL IN THE EARLY EVENING. FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE SATURDAY
KEEPING CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING BUT AS MID LEVEL DYNAMICS
WEAKEN WILL SEE POST FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOME SCATTERED IN
THE AFTERNOON.

 MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN. ECMWF WAS
FASTEST TRANSITIONING THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW TO AN OPEN WAVE
TROUGH, NAM MOVE THE LOW A BIT TOO CLOSE TO THE PANHANDLE COAST
SO KEPT WITH THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION. MAIN DIFFERENCES WITH NEW
MODELS RUNS WAS TO PUT SOME HIGHER POPS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW BUT OTHER WISE CHANGES WERE MINIMAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...REMAINS OF THE LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT RANGE WILL
LINGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
BRIEF RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER COAST BUT BE DISPLACED TO
THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE PANHANDLE SO LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS SITKA AND ANGOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING FARTHER
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW ITSELF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE PANHANDLE AND A RIDGE SHOULD SET UP LATE IN THE WEEK,
PRODUCING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND A RETURN TO OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK.

PARTIAL CLEARING RESULTING FROM A WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET DOWN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS GETTING UP TO THE MID 50S OVER MOST
PLACES. HIGHS AND LOWS RUNNING 3 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST UNTIL TUESDAY
WHEN PRE-FRONTAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL WORK ACROSS THE
GULF AND INTO THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES FROM CAPE EDGECUMBE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS TUESDAY
NIGHT. OFFSHORE SEAS RUNNING 8 TO 10 FEET DURING THIS TIME.

USED A BLEND OF ECMWF AND HPC FOR PRESSURE AND WINDS. BLENDED
ECMWF AND OFFICIAL GRIDS FOR POP AND QPF FIELDS. ADJUSTED TEMPS
WITH BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND GFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031-032-034>036-043-051-052.

&&

PRB/FRITSCH