Small Craft Advisory 178, NWS Juneau, AK

576 
FZAK51 PAJK 041236
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-050100-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A LOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT S TODAY.
A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NE GULF THIS MORNING
THEN MOVE SE AND BECOME BROAD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SE AK LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. A WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-050100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-050100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-050100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-050100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012 

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-050100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012 

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
W SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-050100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-050100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-050100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012 

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-050100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012 

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-050100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012 

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.MON...W WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-050100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012 

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKST SAT MAR 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...
A 998 MB LOW QUASI-STATIONARY JUST EAST OF PAMD CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY FILL TODAY AND IS FORECAST WOBBLE OFF TO THE WEST TONIGHT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 57N
148W IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NW INTO THE NE GULF TONIGHT AND DEVELOP
INTO A 1003 MB LOW. THIS LOW THEN SLOWLY TRACKS OFF TO THE SE ON
SUNDAY.

 SATELLITE SHOW EXTENSIVE OPEN CELL CU ACROSS THE GULF WITH RADAR
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS STRATIFY A BIT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ALTHO SOME
BREAK HAVE OPENED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. WITH TEMPS ALOFT ON THE COOL SIDE AND CAA IN SW FLOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF THESE SHOWERS ARE ALMOST ALL SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAVIEST
PRECIP WILL THE ALONG COAST WITH PAYA HAVING POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO
3 MORE INCHES SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TENTH OF AN INCH OF WATER OR AROUND 1 INCH
OF SNOW. WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR FREEZING
TONIGHT.

 STILL HAVE A MODERATE SLY GRADIENT THROUGH INNER CHANNELS WITH
LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS STILL AT SMCR LEVELS. THIS WILL EASE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS IN THE FAR NORTH INNER CHANNELS
GAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESS RIDGE BUILDS OVER YUKON
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SOME CLEARING PAYA-PAHN BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

 OFFSHORE HAVE A SOLID SW SMCR ACROSS ALMOST ALL GULF. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH WITH 12 TO 16 FOOT RANGE WITH A SIGNIFICANT SW SWELL.
AKWAVE HINTING SEE INCREASE A TOUCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AS
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH BUT IT HAS BEEN RUNNING A FEW FEET
HIGH LATELY.

 GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND DID NOT
HAVE A STRONG MODEL PREFERENCE. USED THE 12Z NAM12 FOR PRES AND
WIND.

.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF MON NIGHT AND OVER THE PANHANDLE TUE. USED A BLEND
OF THE NAM/EC THROUGH TUE NIGHT BUT THAT DID CHANGE THE FORECAST
THAT MUCH. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE WINDS OVER LAND
AND MARINE WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. FROM WED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND REFRESHED THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE.
THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE WITH
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A UPPER LOW WILL BE SLIDING
SE OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF AS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS AND IN THE TEENS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH MON AS THE UPPER RIDGE TIPS
OVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES.

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF MON NIGHT AND OVER THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH TUE. P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHARPEN THROUGH MON NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
INCREASE THE SE FLOW. MOST PLACES WILL START OUT AS SNOW MON NIGHT
AS PRECIP SPREADS FROM THE NW TO SE. THE SNOW WILL MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO ALL RAIN THROUGH TUE WITH SE WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE
AND MIX DOWN SOME WARMER AIR TEMPS. THE DEW POINTS MAY STAY AROUND
FREEZING SO SOME SNOW MAY STILL FALL BUT WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR INNER
CHANNELS WHERE THEY COULD GET SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS. THE
WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS WILL INCREASE TO MAX SMALL CRAFTS TO
GALES BY LATE MON NIGHT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE YUKON TO KEEP THE
SOUTHERN S WINDS GOING INTO TUE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT EAST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN INTO WED.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF PHASE
WITH THE TIMING OF LOWS MOVING INTO THE GULF. BUT MOST MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES AS POINT TO A SIGNIFICANT LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-031-041>043-051>053.

&&

MM/ABJ