Small Craft Advisory 15, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
355 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...FAST MOVING LOWS MOVED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE CHAOTIC WEATHER ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...THAT HAS MOVED WARMER AIR NORTH NEAR HAINES AND
SKAGWAY. THE COMPLEX PARENT LOW SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE PARENT LOW MOVES
ACROSS IT WILL USHER IN SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES AND START
CHANGING RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW OR MIX WITH IT AT LEAST OVER
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PANHANDLE.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF WARMER AIR BEING MOVED NORTH HAVE SOME CONCERNS
ABOUT THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL ADJUST
THE AREA COVERED BY THESE TO NORTH OF MILE MARKER 15 ON THE
CHILKAT HIGHWAY AND ABOVE 1200 FEET ON THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY FOR
TONIGHT WITH AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

THERE IS RIDGING BEING MOVED ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND SHIFT WIND DIRECTIONS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THINK IT WILL ALSO YIELD A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
TO LET THE SUNSHINE THROUGH.

ANOTHER COMPLEX REGION OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS FRONTAL FEATURE
WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THAT SNOW WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.

ASSOCD WIND EVENT FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING INCLUDES GALE AND
STORMS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS. NOTE THE SNOWFALL FOR PAYA FOR THU NIGHT:
THAT IS THE ONLY ZONE THAT WILL HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO
OVER RUN FOR A SNOW EVENT.

FORECASTS ARE ABOUT TO BE UPDATED FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
ZONE 17.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
         WINTER STORM WATCH BEING PREPARED FOR ZONE 17 FOR
         THU NIGHT.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035.

&&

BEZENEK/JBT