High Wind Watch 4, NWS Juneau, AK

590 
WWAK77 PAJK 252343
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012

AKZ025-261300-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.A.0004.121027T0300Z-121028T1500Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
343 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...

STRONG NORTHEAST TAKU WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WIND GUSTS OF
60 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
WEATHER NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT FRIDAY MORNING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

835 
WWAK77 PAJK 261240
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
440 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

AKZ025-262000-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0004.121027T0300Z-121028T1500Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0013.121027T0600Z-121028T1500Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
440 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
AKDT SUNDAY FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM AKDT
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* TIMING...THE 60 MPH GUSTS WILL BEGIN AT ABOUT 10 PM.

* WINDS...GUSTS OF 60 MPH WILL OCCUR IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
  DOUGLAS

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE
  BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...STAY ALERT FOR FLYING DEBRIS AND
DOORS SLAMMING SHUT.

PLEASE ENSURE THAT YOUR VESSELS ARE PROPERLY MOORED IN DOUGLAS
AND HARRIS HARBORS.

THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO POWERLINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKDT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

JBT

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
348 PM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...PRESSURE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER THE CLEAR DRY WEATHER WITH LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AK
INTERIOR AND YUKON AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF
EXTENDING FROM A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF
WASHINGTON. AS THE LOW DISSIPATES THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
SUBSTANTIALLY WHILE THE HIGH YUKON WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT DOWN INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE NORTH-SOUTH ASPECT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE THE EAST-WEST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
INTACT KEEPING EASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS IN PLACE. A DEVELOPING LOW
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL REACH 50N/150W BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NEAR
SKAGWAY. EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
30S FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE AK GULF KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL SHOULD
DROP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT ORIENTATION BEGINS TO
SHIFT. GAP AND OUTFLOW WINDS FROM INTERIOR PASSES KEEP GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCALLY WINDS CONDITIONS IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
SOUTH DOUGLAS FROM WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY CONTINUE TODAY WITH
A LULL IN GUSTS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR AVIATION
KEPT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN PAJN TAF DUE TO CONTINUING OUTFLOW.
ALSO ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF PAYA AS SHIFTING GRADIENT LOOKS
TO BUMP UP OUTFLOW WINDS THERE.

NAM/ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN WITH THE GFS STILL AS AN
OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO PRESSURE. BLENDED IN 00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/ECMWF TO INHERITED GRIDS...OVERALL CHANGES WERE MINOR. USED
PERSISTENCE AS MAIN GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE YUKON WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THURSDAY THAT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. A
FRONT ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF THURSDAY IS PARTIALLY PICKED UP
BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SHEARS APART ON FRIDAY. A SECOND
BETTER ORGANIZED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SUNDAY. A SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH
ONLY THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG DIXON ENTRANCE GOING TO
CLOUDY SKIES. NORTHERN PART OF SOUTHERN ZONES WILL STAY PARTLY
CLOUDY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SATURDAY. WILL BRING IN A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY THAT
GOES TO LIKELY FOR SE CORNER SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT PRECIP WILL
SPREAD TO AT LEAST FREDERICK SOUND OF SUNDAY BEFORE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND PUSHES OFF TO THE SE SUNDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT WITH CURRENT DRY BOUNADRY LAYER SO ANY SNOW ACCUMS
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW COMBINED WITH LOW WET BULB TEMPS WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS SNOW BUT WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SE WINDS AND WILL SEE
PRECIP GO TO RAIN.

THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY...COOL AND
LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAT BECOMES CLOUDIER
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP WITH SECOND SHORT WAVE BY NEXT
MONDAY. NE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
FIRST SHORT WAVE AND COULD GO BACK TO GALES IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
BY FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT NE SMCR TO PERSIST. TEMPS COULD BE A
BIT COLDER AT NIGHT WITH TEENS EXPECTED FOR THE FAR NORTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
GFS AND EC IN LONGER RANGES. USED THE NAM TO UPDATE WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY THE USED A GFS/EC BLEND BEYOND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL
7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR
PKZ012.          SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ011-013-021-022-031-043-051-052.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-043-051-052.

&&

FRITSCH/MM