Gale Warning 73, NWS Juneau, AK

941 
FZAK51 PAJK 201238
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-210100-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A COMPLEX STORM FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 300 NM SW OF SALISBURY
SOUND WILL DEEPEN TO 955 MB FRI AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF STRONG
FRONTS WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE SW. THE
STORM CENTER WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OFF DIXON ENTRANCE ON SAT.  

$$

PKZ011-210100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-210100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 60 KT IN THE LATE MORNING. GUSTS TO
80 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 60 KT. GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-210100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-210100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
LATE. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-210100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING 50 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO 70 KT.
SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. SNOW LATE. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-210100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. 
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-210100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-210100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-210100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-210100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-210100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT FROM INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
611 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER DRY DAY IN STORE FOR SE AK TODAY. BUT A
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TONIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING
WAS ISSUED WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR A TAKU WIND
EVENT NEAR JUNEAU STARTING THURS EVENING. SEE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR INFO ABOUT HIGH WIND AND WINTER STORM
WATCHES ELSEWHERE BEGINNING FRIDAY.

 HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH VERY DENSE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE YUKON AND NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE -35 RANGE. YAKUTAT WAS APPROACHING
-8 DEGREES THIS MORNING. NORTH WIND IS STILL GUSTING OVER 50 KT
IN LYNN CANAL. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WHITE PASS WAS EXTENDED
INTO FRI AND THE COLD WIND CHILL MAY AFFECT SKAGWAY FRI AS STRONG
NORTH WIND INCREASES THERE.

 MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A BONE DRY AIR MASS OVER THE PANHANDLE
WITH ONLY 0.05 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGH THE ENTIRE
ATMOSPHERE COLUMN. SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILERS MEASURED EAST
WIND FROM THE SURFACE TO JUST ABOVE RIDGETOP LEVEL ALONG THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE EAST TO WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW. ALOFT...WINDS ARE WESTERLY AND STEERING SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE OUR WAY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE PATTERN IS RIPE
FOR A TAKU WIND EVENT NEAR JUNEAU STARTING TONIGHT. USING THE NAM
MODEL FROM WED EVENING THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH
60 MPH FROM DOWNTOWN JUNEAU TO DOUGLAS THUR NIGHT AND EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS ON FRI. CONFIDENCE IN THE WINDY WEATHER IS HIGHER THAN LAST
WEEKEND WHEN THE AIRMASS OVER THE PANHANDLE TURNED OUT TO BE TOO
STABLE. CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT...FIRST TIME IN A WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE EXISTING FORECAST GRID OTHER THAN INCREASE WIND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY INNER CHANNELS. USED THE NAM MODEL FORECAST TRACK FOR
THE APPROACH LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND HENCE WIND FORECASTS. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
DUE TO WIND AND CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF WELL S OF THE AKPEN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...AND THEN TURN NE
AS A STRONG TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WRN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE STRONG TROF WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SMALLER SCALE BUT THE ONLY MODEL
THAT REALLY DIFFERS ON STORM TRACK THROUGH MON IS THE 00Z GFS. THE
OTHER MODELS AS WELL AS THE 06Z GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
MAIN LOW TRACKS THROUGH MON. AFTER MON THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
ENDED UP USING A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND EC FROM 12Z FRI TO 12Z
SUN...THEN WENT WITH LATEST HPC FROM 00Z MON ON OUT.

 BIG CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS WELL AS
HIGH WINDS. THE MAIN SNOW THREAT WILL BE OVER THE SRN AREA FRI
INTO EARLY SAT AS STRONG OVERRUNNING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE OCCURS AHEAD OF A COUPLE A COMPLEX LOW AND FRONTS MOVING NE
INTO THE SE GULF. THE FIRST FRONT WILL MOVE IN FRI MORNING AND
LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IT AND MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE S SAT MORNING.
BOTH FRONTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERALL LIFTING ENVIRONMENT
AND THERE MAY NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN PRECIP BETWEEN THEM
AS OVERRUNNING WILL CONTINUE. GIVEN INTENSITY OF THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS THE LIFT WILL BE RATHER STRONG AS WARM AIR RIDES OVER THE
TOP...THUS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE SRN AREA.
HAVE ISSUED WS WATCHES FOR ZONES 26 THRU 29...WITH ZONE
26 STARTING A LITTLE LATER THAN THE OTHER 3 ZONES TO THE S ON
FRI. THE WATCH WILL RUN UNTIL 18Z SAT...WHEN THE FAR S MAY GET
SOME RAIN TO MIX IN AND PRECIP TAPERS OFF A BIT AS WELL.

 FURTHER N...STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FRI INTO
SAT BUT SNOW WILL GET INTO THE PICTURE LATER SAT INTO SUN
MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE N
AND THE LOW MOVING INTO THE SE GULF WILL STRENGTHEN FRI...AND
LOCALLY CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR A TAKU WIND EVENT
FRI INTO EARLY SAT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ZONES
18 AND 19 FOR FRI MORNING INTO SAT AFTERNOON...AND KEPT HIGH WIND
WARNING GOING FOR ZONE 25 UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING. AS THE WINDS
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SNOW WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE S LATER SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT. BEST ACCUMULATING  SNOW THREAT FOR THE N-CENTRAL AREA WILL
BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS LOW OVER SE GULF OPENS UP TO A
TROF AS IT MOVES N ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
SNOW DURING THIS TIME BUT IT IS FAIRLY FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE FOR
ISSUANCE OF ANY WWA THIS EARLY. DID REISSUE THE SPS THOUGH.

 BEYOND SUN...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE RULE MOST OF THE TIME BUT
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LOW UNDERCUTTING THE NRN AREA FOR
MON...POSSIBLY DIMINISHING PRECIP THREAT SOME THERE. BUT AS THE
STRONG TROF OVER THE WRN GULF HEADS EWD PRECIP THREAT SHOULD PICK
BACK UP FROM TUE ONWARD. TEMPS WILL LIKELY COOL OFF SOME TUE ON
OUT AS VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE TROF...AND
SOME ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN OVER THE FAR N. COULD LEAD TO
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW TUE INTO THU AT THE LEAST.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
          SATURDAY MORNING FOR AKZ026.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
          MORNING FOR AKZ027>029.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM AKST
          SATURDAY FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
          TONIGHT FOR AKZ029.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
          AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-019.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR
          AKZ019.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ018.

MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-034-
          035-051-053
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031-041-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032>036-042-052.

TA/RWT