Gale Warning 68, NWS Juneau, AK

847 
FZAK51 PAJK 190017
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-191400-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THURSDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-191400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 

.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-191400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-191400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-191400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-191400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-191400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT NORTH OF ENDICOTT ARM.
GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT NORTH OF ENDICOTT ARM. GUSTS TO
60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT.  SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-191400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-191400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-191400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-191400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-191400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012 

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE LATE. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
356 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

.SHORT TERM...WILL BE SEEING THE BEGINNING OF THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE HIGH ITSELF WEAKENS AND THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
SOUTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA BEGINS TO RECEDE TO THE NORTH
TOMORROW. 850 MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MODEL DATA ARE SHOWING THE
MAXIMUM WESTWARD PUSH OF THE COLDEST LOW LEVEL AIR AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON. PROFILER DATA SHOWING THAT THE THERMAL INVERSION IS
APPROXIMATELY 6000 FEET DEEP, SO WILL STILL SEE COLD TEMPS
TONIGHT, BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. DAY TIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM A FEW DEGREES TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WARMER FOR
TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL EXIST
ALONG THE HIGHWAYS OF THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE HAINES HIGHWAY, WHERE WIND CHILL
TEMPS WILL GET DOWN TO RIGHT AROUND 30 BELOW LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WAS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE FOR THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR WHITE PASS DOWN TO
45 DEGREES BELOW OVERNIGHT, DO HAVE EXTENDED THE EXISTING
ADVISORY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

GAP FLOW WINDS STILL PRESENT AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATION
DATA AND STILL HAVE GALES OVER LYNN CANAL WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. ALSO HAVE OUTFLOW GALES OVER COASTAL MARINE
ZONES 43 AND 51. BUT THE TREND IN WIND SPEED AND GUSTS IS DOWN.
STILL HAVE FREEZING SPRAY IN MANY OF THE MARINE FORECAST ZONES AS
WELL.

AM STARTING TO SEE SOME CLOUD COVER BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AS
WELL VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLOUD CONDITIONS
BEGINNING OVER FREDERICK SOUND AND FLOWING OFFSHORE ACROSS
SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND. PORT ALEXANDER REPORTED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY. ALSO HAVE SOME CLOUDS MOVING OVER CHICHAGOF
ISLAND AND EASTERN ICY STRAIT. A LARGE BROKEN LAYER IS PRESSING
DOWN FROM THE YUKON, BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS OVERCAST WILL
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE PANHANDLE. IN SUM, AM STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST ONE MORE MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER BUILD BACK IN.

USED NAM FOR MOST UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN, AND CONTINUES TO RUN SLIGHTLY COLD, SO BASED
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MODIFIED PERSISTENCE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

 &&

.LONG TERM...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUKON AND B.C. WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL REACH AROUND 52 NORTH ON
FRIDAY. THERE IT WILL DEUMBELL ANOTHER SMALL BUT DEEP LOW
NORTHEAST TOWRADS THE SOUTHEAST GULF SATURDAY BEFORE KICKING EAST.
THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT A NEW AND VERY COLD UPPER LOW WILL
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND BRING A RETURN TO ONSHORE
FLOW ALOFT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLEAR COLD AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AND SEE LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN WEATHER. STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADOENTS BETWEEN HIGH IN YUKON AND LOW IN PACIFIC WILL
KEEP GALE FORCE WINDS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS THOUGH INNER CHANNELS
AND NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES AND PASSES. TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH
TO KEEP FREEZING SPRAY ALL AREAS AND POSSIBLY HEVAY FREZING SPRAY
FOR INNER CHANNELS.

BY LATE THURSDAY FIRST SYTEM WILL SEND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND A CHANCE OF SNOW TO FAR SOUTH. AHEAD OF THIS
NLY GRADIENTS WEAKEN A BIT THEN INCREASE A BIT AFTER IT KICKS
EAST.

SECOND SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER MAKER WITH AN EXCELLENT
SET UP FOR OVERRUNNING SNOW. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF EXACT TRACK
OF LOW AT THIS TIME SO STILL UNCERTAIN WHERE SNOW WILL FALL.
CURRENTLY EXPECT SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLE SOUTH CENTRAL IF LOW TAKES
A FARTHER NORTH TRACK. THIS LOW WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND CAN NOT RULE OUT STORMS AND BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WARMER AND WETTER AIRMASS SPREADS OVER
PANHANDLE. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW AREA WIDE AND EVENTUALLY GOING
TO RAIN ALONG IMMEDIAT COAST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO GRIDS TODAY. USED NAM AND GFS TO
AJUST DAY 3 TO 4.5 WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. KEPPT REMAIN GRIDS UNCHANGED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM AKST WEDNESDAY
     FOR AKZ019.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-031.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ053.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031-032-034>036-041-043-053.

&&

FRITSCH/MM