Gale Warning 62, NWS Juneau, AK

243 
FZAK51 PAJK 161323
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-170100-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON EXTENDING SE INTO B.C. AND A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS OVER THE SE GULF
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-170100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-170100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-170100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-170100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING
TO 7 FT LATE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-170100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-170100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-170100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-170100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-170100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-170100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-170100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT...
EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
558 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS FROM
WHAT THE REGION HAS BEEN SEEING. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT LULL IN THE
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH TODAY. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT DRIFTS SOUTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. SO  STRONG GUSTS FROM
INTERIOR PASSES WILL AGAIN INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SPREAD
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 20S OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH TODAY THEN THEY WILL DROP TONIGHT WITH THE
COLD SHOT AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW ALONG THE HAINES AND
KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
AREAS. THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL SEE LOW TEMPS FROM 10 TO THE UPPER
TEENS. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF COLD WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT MAINLY NEAR 20 BELOW. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOST CLEAR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

 THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SE AK MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESS OVER THE YUKON AND NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. THERE IS ALSO A INVERTED TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF IS
PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM N TO S. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS WILL
TIGHTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH BC. MIN GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE NNE
TO BE SOLID TO MAX GALES WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70 KT FROM
INTERIOR PASSES AND OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS S
INTO BC GUSTS TO 50 KT FROM INTERIOR PASSES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTHERN LAND AREAS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND
COLD TEMPS HAVE PRODUCED COLD WIND CHILLS TO 35 BELOW ALONG THE
FAR NORTHERN HIGHWAYS AND WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH NEAR ZONE 18.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SO
THE WIND CHILL ADVY FOR ZONE 19 AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR
ZONE 18 STILL LOOK GOOD. THE WIND ALONG THE KLONDIKE WILL PRODUCE
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILES AT TIMES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
THERE IS A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TAKU WINDS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU
AND DOUGLAS FROM NOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NEAR THERE IS ON THE WINDY SIDE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
40 MPH THESE GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 60 MPH AS THE
CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASES AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL HELP
GET THE MOUNTAIN WAVE GOING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THESE
HIGH WINDS WILL LAST LONGER AS THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 50 KT
PERSIST INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH ENHANCING OFFSHORE FLOW UNDER COLD ARCTIC
AIR MASS. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO MAINTAIN A MAXIMUM CONSISTENCY.

 STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EASE SOMEWHAT BY TUESDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLIGHTLY RELAXES...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST DOMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
AND FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS...YAKUTAT BAY AND
OUTSIDE WATERS. KEPT THE BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILL EVENT FOR
SKAGWAY AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR HAINES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

 MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. STAYED WITH THE HPC ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR THE REMAINING
LONG TERM PERIODS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND GENERALLY
LOWERING PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SCENARIO
WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR
     AKZ025.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ043-051.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012-031-053.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-034-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-035-036-041-042-052.

&&

ABJ/AHN