Gale Warning 486, NWS Juneau, AK

890 
FZAK52 PAJK 211244
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE YUKON THROUGH SAT. 

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45
KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 5 FT.

.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012 

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE LOW NOW WELL SW OF HAIDA GWAII WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. ARCTIC HIGH WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE YUKON THROUGH FRI. LIKED A BLEND OF
THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF FOR THEIR HANDLING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WIND AND TEMPS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN AND ERN
INNER CHANNELS. THIS WILL KEEP GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS GOING
OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS THROUGH FRI...AS WELL AS
GALE TO STORM FORCE OUTFLOW INTO PARTS OF THE NE GULF. SHOULD HAVE
LESS WIND OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND FAR SRN INNER CHANNELS...WITH
20-30 KT EXPECTED THERE...EXCEPT FOR STRONGER OUTFLOW FROM
INTERIOR PASSES. LOCALLY...STILL GETTING GUSTS TO 60-65 MPH AT
SOUTH DOUGLAS ISLAND...AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING...SO AM KEEPING HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 9 AM FRI. WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONE 19 ALONG LYNN CANAL AND ZONE 17 OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ZONE 18 WILL ALSO HAVE
STRONG WINDS BUT THERE AM KEEPING BLIZZARD WARNING GOING UNTIL 5
AM FRI DUE TO POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW NEAR WHITE PASS...SO
WILL NOT HAVE STRONG WIND HEADLINE THERE.

AS FOR TEMPS...COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FRI. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS THEY
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WIND REMAINS IN ANY GIVEN AREA. AT THIS
POINT LEANED TOWARD KEEPING TEMPS A BIT HIGHER THAN MOS IN MANY
AREAS AS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL KEEP SOME WIND
AROUND...BUT DID HAVE A COUPLE AREAS AROUND PAJN AND PAPG GETTING
COLDER DUE TO WINDS BECOMING LIGHT IN THE LOCAL AREAS. DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE MUCH ON FRI DUE TO THE WEAK SOLAR HEATING
BEING PARTLY OFFSET BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION. WIND CHILLS TO 45
BELOW ARE EXPECTED NEAR WHITE PASS WHICH IS ADVY LEVEL FOR THAT
PARAMETER BUT THAT WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING
STATEMENT. WIND CHILLS NEAR SEA LEVEL OVER THE N COULD BE 15 TO 25
BELOW IN THE WINDIER AREAS.

OTHERWISE... CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THE N SHOULD HAVE
LARGER BREAKS SO WILL KEEP THEM PARTLY CLOUDY. THE S WILL SEE A
MORE ORGANIZED CLOUD BAND MOVE IN FROM THE SE WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROF SO WILL HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT ZONE
27...WHERE THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. MOST OF
THE CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE MID-LEVELS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
THIS. ALSO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGLY OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD
TEND TO DRY OUT ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO THE S...SO FOR NOW WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP OVER THE S FRI.

.LONG TERM...GENERAL SYNOPTIC THINKING REMAINS THE SAME IN THE
LONG RANGE PERIOD. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE OMEGA
BLOCK THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BREAKDOWN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING
NORTHWARD. A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND YUKON SLIDES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF AND SUBSEQUENT ONSHORE FLOW. THE SECOND SYSTEM OF
INTEREST IN THE LONG RANGE IS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE
SUBTROPICS LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THE STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER
THE PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL STILL PERSIST IN MANY OF THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THE USUAL WINDY LAND
LOCATIONS INCLUDING SKAGWAY...THE HAINES AREA NEAR LYNN
CANAL...AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE AND THE
DETAILS OF EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE NEXT
WEEK. THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ABLE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. WHILE FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE ONSHORE...AN EAST-
WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW OFFSHORE. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE WITH
DECREASING CHANCES INLAND. AM THINKING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE.

USED MAINLY THE NAM THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A
HPC/GFS BLEND. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LEADING TO BELOW
AVERAGE TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ018-025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AKZ019.
         BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ031.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-035-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032>034-036-041-042-052-053.

&&

RWT/TPS