Gale Warning 481, NWS Juneau, AK

635 
FZAK52 PAJK 191254
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 19 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-200100-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 19 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG GALE FORCE LOW IN THE S CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH
WED. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON WILL CONTINUE STORM FORCE WINDS FOR
THE NORTHERN INSIDE PASSAGE WITH FREEZING SPRAY OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. 

$$

PKZ041-200100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 19 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. W
SWELL.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-200100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 19 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. W
SWELL.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE
MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-200100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 19 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT
OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-200100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 19 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-200100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 19 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. FREEZING SPRAY LATE.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
240 PM AKST TUE DEC 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE S-CENTRAL GULF
WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH WED. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR SRN AREA TONIGHT...THEN REACH THE CENTRAL AREA
WED BUT GO ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND NAM FOR THE
FORECAST THROUGH WED.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WINDS...PRECIP POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS...AND TEMPS. RIGHT NOW THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS ARE IN THE MORE E-W CHANNELS...WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THOSE AREAS. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
TONIGHT...GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE
N-S CHANNELS THROUGH THE NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS IN THOSE AREAS
TO GALE FORCE IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT TO STORM FORCE IN NRN LYNN
CANAL. WILL BE GOING WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST...FOR THE PAJN AREA IN DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND OTHER OUTFLOW AREAS FROM LATE EVENING INTO
WED...AND FOR PAHN/PAGY AREAS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE
PAHN ZONE LIMITED TO ALONG LYNN CANAL.

 AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...MOST OF IT WILL FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND. PTYPE SHOULD BE SNOW EXCEPT OVER THE
FAR S AREA WHERE PRECIP WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND
WILL LIKELY GET 2-4 INCHES TONIGHT AND 1-3 INCHES WED...WITH
1-3 INCHES ALONG THE SRN COAST AND SRN INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT AND
UP TO 1 INCH WED. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR N AS PAOH/PAGN AREAS.
FURTHER N AND E THE OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS TOO DEEP TO ALLOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND PAJN AND PAGS WED.

 AS FOR TEMPS...THE AIRMASS WILL BE SLOWLY MODERATING TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS OVER THE N WILL BOTTOM OUT THIS
EVENING THEN SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. OVER THE
S...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A BIT TONIGHT
AS FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WED TEMPS SHOULD BE MILDER OVER THE
S WITH MOST AREAS GETTING ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE FAR S. LATER
WED COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE N WHICH WILL LIMIT TEMP
RISES ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WHITE PASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
AND HAVE ENOUGH WIND TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVY BEGINNING THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF
SLOWLY FILLS AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF NORTH OVER ALASKAN INTERIOR. A SURFACE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY.
REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY TO MAKE A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST AND MAINTAIN A MAXIMUM CONSISTENCY FOR THE EARLIER
PORTIONS OF THE LONG TERM PACKAGE.

 AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE 1 TO 3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY COLD
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES EAST OF
YAKUTAT...NORTHERN MOST PANHANDLE AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU. STRONG
OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES OF INNER
CHANNELS. SOME INLAND WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE
SINGLE DIGIT OVERNIGHT MERCURY READINGS.

 THE LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
FARTHER SOUTH AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. HAVE DECIDED TO PUT STRONG WIND HEADLINE
FOR SKAGWAY...HAINES AND JUNEAU ZONES INITIALLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND THUS
LEANED OVER THE HPC ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF HEAVIER WEIGHTING ON
ECMWF FOR THE REMAINING LONG TERM PERIODS. EXPECT THE HIGH
CONTINUES MARCHING NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL OPEN A DOOR TO GREET A DEVELOPING STORM OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BEFORE CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ018-019.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053.

&&

RWT/AHN