Gale Warning 45, NWS Juneau, AK

506 
FZAK52 PAJK 090707 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1007 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-091600-
1007 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS SE ALASKA
SUN NIGHT. A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NW GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NE
GULF BY MON MORNING. 

$$

PKZ041-091600-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1007 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-091600-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1007 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL.  
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-091600-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1007 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-091600-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1007 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-091600-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1007 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

144 
FZAK52 PAJK 091244
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 9 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-100100-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 9 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW OVER THE NE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
OVER THE AK PANHANDLE MONDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OUTER
COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-100100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 9 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 16
FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-100100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 9 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 15
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-100100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 19 FT LATE. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 40 KT GALE. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-100100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-100100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. 
.TUE...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE
COAST. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S OVERNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL.
SNOW...RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
220 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRES OVER THE NW GULF WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT E
TO THE NE GULF BY MON MORNING. A LOW FORMING OVER THE SW YUKON
WILL MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA THRU TONIGHT. ARCTIC FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN BE E
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MON. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PRESSURE
GRIDS...BUT DID ADJUST WINDS A BIT TO THE GRADIENT FORECASTED
OVER THE INNER CHANNELS.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING PRECIP CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW...AND WINDS. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE SHOWERY ESPECIALLY
ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA. BASED ON TIMING OF
ARCTIC FRONT AND MODEL CONSENSUS ON 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
DROPPING BELOW 1290M...TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG THE NRN COAST BY 03Z...THE CENTRAL COAST NWD TO AROUND PAGS
BY 06Z...THEN THE PAJN AREA AROUND 09Z...THE PAPG/PAWG AND SRN
COASTAL AREAS 10-12Z...THEN THE FAR SERN CORNER BY 18Z MON AT THE
LATEST.

 AS FOR WIND...AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE IN NRN LYNN CANAL...WITH GALES LIKELY...AND SCA FOR THE
REMAINING AREA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THRU...LYNN CANAL WILL
REMAIN WINDY BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE W OVER THE GULF
TONIGHT INTO MON AS SFC LOW MOVES EWD ALONG THE FAR NRN GULF AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE GULF. WILL SEE GALE
FORCE WLYS OVER THE CENTRAL AND FAR NW GULF BEGINNING THIS
EVENING...THEN REACH THE NE GULF TO THE SE OF PAYA LATE TONIGHT
OR MON MORNING. WILL ALSO SEE GALES ALONG HEADLAND AREAS ALONG
THE NRN OUTER COAST BY LATE TONIGHT...AND HEADLAND AREAS ALONG
THE SRN COAST BEGINNING MON MORNING. MOST OF THE REMAINING AREA
WILL SEE SCA LATE TONIGHT AND MON. WILL KEEP STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR PAJN/PAGY GOING...WITH PAJN UNTIL 03Z AND PAGY
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

 OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL AFTER ARCTIC FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THRU MON MORNING...THEN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN STEADY DURING THE DAY MON. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THINK
MOST SNOW WILL FALL IN THE PAYA AND PAEL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
MON. COULD GENERALLY SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THOSE AREAS BY
LATE MON AFTERNOON. COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES IN THE PAJN/PAOH
AREAS...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE SHOWERY
NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR LARGE DIFFERENCES OVER A SHORT
DISTANCE THOUGH ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCATION GETS FREQUENT SNOW
SHOWERS.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...THE COLD ARCTIC AIR IS STARTING TO WIN THE BATTLE
THIS WEEK. COLD PUSH NUMBER ONE WILL STILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE
START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD MON NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS MON
NIGHT MAY EDGE DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS WITH TEENS IN THE
EXTREME NORTH. IT WILL NOT LAST AS PROGRESSIVE SW FLOW ONCE AGAIN
BRINGS WARM MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE AREA STARTING EARLY TUES. THE
NEXT SYSTEM STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA STARTING TUES AND
CONTINUING INTO WED. LINGERING COLD AIR WILL CAUSE MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AND KETCHIKAN TO START OUT AS
SNOW. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED CHANGING THE SNOW
OVER TO RAIN OR A MIX FROM ICE STRAIT SOUTHWARD.

 PAST THIS POINT MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTIES WITH THE
NEXT FEW WAVES THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEY ARE
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT ON ONE, POSSIBLY TWO, WAVES COMING UP INTO
THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SW THROUGH FRI, BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING.
THESE WAVES GENERALLY KEEP THINGS GENERALLY MOIST AND SOMEWHAT
WARM AS THE PARENT LOW DRIFTS AND WEAKENS IN THE GULF.

 BY THE WEEKEND, THE COLD AIR WILL BE LAUNCHING A STRONG
OFFENSIVE AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING SENDING
COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE ALASKA AND CANADIAN INTERIOR. MODEL
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE REACHING ANYWHERE FROM 1040 MB TO 1050 MB
FOR STATIONS IN THE YUKON AND INTERIOR ALASKA BY SUN AND 850 MB
TEMPS ARE DROPPING NEAR -30 C OVER THE YUKON. FOR SE ALASKA,
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL START UP NEXT WEEKEND AND START THE COOL DOWN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

 MODEL AGREEMENT WAS DECENT FOR THE LONG RANGE PERIOD OUT TO MID
WEEK. AFTER MID WEEK SOME DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE WEAK WAVES LATE WEEK CAUSE SOME LOSS OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SOUND. UPDATED THE
FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT BLEND TO THE EC THROUGH WED AS PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE. PAST WED NIGHT USED A BLEND TO THE
HPC DATA TO TRY AND SMOOTH OUT THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-021-022-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

RWT/EAL