Gale Warning 438, NWS Juneau, AK

195 
FZAK67 PAJK 261248
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 26 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-270100-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 26 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A LOW OFF THE COAST OF HAIDA GWAII WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE WED AFTERNOON. A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF WED AND REACH KODIAK BY THU. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF WED NIGHT AND REACH THE
PANHANDLE BY THU.  

$$

PKZ310-270100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 26 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY WERE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING LOW IN THE FAR SE GULF AND AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OF VORTICITY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH BELOW IT IS CAUSING
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS SEEN ON SATELLITE.
THE RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS OFFSHORE UNDER THESE CLOUDS. HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE KLAWOCK AND YAKUTAT AREAS THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LINGERS.

 OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVALENT OVER THE INLAND LAND
AREAS...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AT
SUNSET. PUT LOWS AT ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT OR A DEGREE
WARMER. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE WARMING SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TOMORROW SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TODAY AS WELL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

 HIGH PRESSURE IN B.C. AND THE TROUGH IN THE GULF CONTINUES THE
GUSTY WINDS OUT OF E-NE INTERIOR PASSES AND INSIDE WATERS. MOST
OF THESE AREAS ARE SEEING GALE FORCE GUSTS TODAY. WINDIEST PLACES
ARE SKAGWAY AND TAIYA INLET WHERE GUSTS OF 50MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CROSS SOUND CURRENTLY HAS GUSTS OF 40KT AND
OTHER EAST CHANNELS ARE LIKELY SEEING SIMILAR VALUES. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE WINDS THROUGH CROSS SOUND DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN
AS A NEW LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

 USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TODAY WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12.
OVERALL MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...WARM UP IN THE WORKS WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
COMING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE WARM UP IS COURTESY OF THE
PANHANDLE BEING ON THE W SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT FORMS
MID WEEK. THE RESULTING SW UPPER FLOW WILL CLEAR THE WAY FOR
STORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TO ONCE AGAIN MAKE IT INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE YUKON THAT HAS BEEN LINGER
OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL FINALLY GET PUSHED OUT OF THERE BY THE
FIRST OF THESE STORMS AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH ON THURS WITH
PRECIP STARTING THURS MORNING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART AS WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGINS PUSHING THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE NORTHWARD THURS INTO FRI. CHANGE OVER FROM SNOW TO
RAIN MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS EARLY THURS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, THURS NIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE INCLUDING
JUNEAU, AND EARLY FRI FOR OTHER PLACES FARTHER NORTH AT SEA
LEVEL. THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS MAY BE THE ONLY PLACES
THAT DON'T EVENTUALLY SEE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM THIS
STORM. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE TRICKY AS RECENT MODEL
RUNS HAVE BEEN REDUCING THE QPF IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
CURRENTLY HOLDING AT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BUT WITH MODELS STARTING TO TREND TOWARD A DRYER
SCENARIO THOSE AMOUNTS ARE IN DOUBT.

 AS FOR THE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM, IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL BE LOOKING AT GALES FOR WED NIGHT WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE OUTER COAST THURS MORNING. I AM NOT
EXPECTING STRONG WIND HEADLINES TO BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER COAST
OR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH AND THE FRONT WILL BE A DECENT DISTANCE FROM ITS PARENT
LOW.

 FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, S TO SW FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF VARIOUS SYSTEMS AND WAVES
MOVING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
STAY FAIRLY WARM WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE DURING THAT TIME. MODEL AGREEMENT STARTS TO BREAK DOWN
AS EARLY AS THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRUCTURE AND TIMING OF ANOTHER
WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH.

 MODEL AGREEMENT IS DECENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, TIMING ON THE FIRST FRONT STILL NEEDS SOME REFINING AS
NAM WAS A BIT FASTER THEN THE OTHER MODELS ON ITS NE PROGRESSION.
DECIDED ON USING THE GFS AND ECMWF UP TO SAT AS THEY WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON TIMING. PAST SAT USED MAINLY HPC TO EVEN OUT THE
DIFFERENCES THAT WERE BECOMING APPARENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE MID RANGE AND A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-031>036-043-051-052.

&&

HANNON/EAL