Gale Warning 412, NWS Juneau, AK

079 
FZAK51 PAJK 250318 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
618 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-251400-
618 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN  OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-251400-
GLACIER BAY-
618 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-251400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
618 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-251400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
618 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
DIMINISHING TO 4 FT LATE. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-251400-
ICY STRAIT-
618 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-251400-
CROSS SOUND-
618 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-251400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
618 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 40 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
EVENING. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-251400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
618 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
SNOW LATE.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-251400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
618 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
IN THE EVENING THEN SUBSIDING. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-251400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
618 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-251400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
618 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
IN THE EVENING THEN SUBSIDING. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. 
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-251400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
618 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE REMAINS OF THE LOW ARE DISSIPATING AS IT
TRACKS TO THE EAST ALONG SUMNER STRAIT. THE LOW WILL REDEVELOP
ABOUT ABOUT 100 NM NE OF KETCHIKAN 12Z SUN AND DRIFT AWAY TO THE
EAST. THIS LOW TRACK HELPS IDENTIFY THE PATTERNS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND WINDS. THE NORTH WINDS NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT IS
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN.

THE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE LOW DISSIPATES.
THE OUTFLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FROM YUKON TERRITORY WILL ALSO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME STRENGTHENING SUNDAY. - JBT

.LONG TERM...
PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH NEARLY A REX-SHAPED BLOCK ALONG 160-170W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 145W AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE. BY SUN EVENING SE ALASKA IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE TO WITH
SHORTWAVES DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THAT RESULTS IN SOMEWHAT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT WITH MODERATE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE YUKON AT THE SURFACE. 23/12 OPS MODELS ALL AGREE ON THIS
FEATURE BECOMING DOMINANT INTO WED FOR OUTFLOW WIND DRYING AND
COOLER TEMPS. BY MIDDAY TUE SOME VERY COLD AIR ALOFT THAT WAS NEAR
42N 160W OR SO TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO UNDERCUT THIS PATTERN AND
MOVE EASTWARD. THIS SETS UP A WEST COAST TYPE RIDGE TUE AS A MAJOR
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TO HUDSON BAY.

SO BY WED WE START SEEING SOME INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SE
ALOFT WHICH IS ALWAYS A BIT DICEY TO PEG FOR PRECIPITATION. IT WAS
EASY TO SELECT THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR WED AND BEYOND DUE TO THE
ENSEMBLE MIX BY HPC FOR THE LONGER AND BLURRY RANGE. OUR OLD FRIEND
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
PANHANDLE AS SOME SORT OF STORM SYSTEM SHOWS ITSELF ON THU WELL SE
OF DIXON ENTRANCE. FORECASTED COOL AND WINDY WITH SOME CHANGE OF
PRECIP MAINLY SNOW NORTH BUT WHO COULD BE CONFIDENT WITH A STORM
TRACK THAT FAR OUT UNDER THIS MESS? METHINKS GIVE IT A DAY OR TWO
BEFORE A STRONG SIGNAL EMERGES. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN THE
MEDIUM AND A BIG GUESS SUPPORTED BY HPC IN THE LONGER RANGE. -JC

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-022-031>035-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043-051-052.
&&