Gale Warning 392, NWS Juneau, AK

283 
FZAK52 PAJK 190526 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
826 PM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-192330-
826 PM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 979 MB LOW IN THE SE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE NE GULF
THROUGH MON AND WEAKEN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MON. OUTLOOK. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SE
GULF ON TUE.  

$$

PKZ041-192330-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
826 PM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-192330-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
826 PM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.  
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-192330-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
826 PM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 11 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 11
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-192330-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
826 PM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-192330-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
826 PM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

324 
FZAK52 PAJK 191314
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 19 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-200100-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 19 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 976 MB LOW IN THE FAR SE GULF OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AND
MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
YUKON WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE. OUTLOOK. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE N
TO JUST W OF HAIDA GWAII TUE.  

$$

PKZ041-200100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 19 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-200100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 19 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-200100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 19 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 
11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-200100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 19 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO
13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-200100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 19 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
350 PM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY BUILDING OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON WILL
ACCELERATE WINDS TO GALE...AND EVEN STORM FORCE FOR LYNN
CANAL...OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WAVE TAKU EVENT IS LIKELY DEVELOPING
LATE THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS....MORE ON THIS
LATER. MODELS NAM AND ECMWF HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF SHORTWAVE
SURFACE CIRCULATIONS ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF INDIVIDUAL LOWS
ARE NOT CONCRETE BUT GENERAL. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF THE EVENING
IS CURRENTLY MOVING UP THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND SPREADING SNOW FROM NEAR JUNEAU TO NEAR PETERSBURG AND
WESTWARD. THE SNOW IS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD AND THUS HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM NORTHERN CHATHAM
COAST-WARD THIS EVENING. OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
BY MIDNIGHT WITH POPS REDUCING MARKEDLY. WHILE INDIVIDUAL LOWS
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF MAY BE HANDLED
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY IN MODELS...THE OVERALL GRADIENT AND
ORIENTATION HAS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...SO
LITTLE CHANGES TO THE WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. OVER THE OUTSIDE
WATERS...HAVE BUMPED WINDS BY 5 KT FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY TIME
PERIOD. AS THE SHORTWAVE OF THIS EVENING EXITS TO SEA
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES
MONDAY MORNING AND SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...LYNN CANAL SHOULD
REMAIN DRY MONDAY AS OUTFLOW WILL TEND TO KEEP THEM DRY. IN
ADDITION...WITH VERY STRONG...PERSISTENT WINDS...COLD
TEMPERATURES...AND CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

 NAM STRONGEST WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE TAKU EVENT FOR TONIGHT...WITH
INGREDIENTS OF INVERSION...REVERSE FLOW ABOVE CRITICAL LEVEL NEAR
500 MB...AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW ALL COMBINING FOR FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WRF WINDS HAVE ALSO HINTED FOR STRONGER WINDS
NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU. WHILE WARNING ISSUED FOR 9 PM THIS SUNDAY
EVENING...TIME FOR WORST WINDS WILL BE POST MIDNIGHT INTO
MID-MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING AS REVERSE FLOW RISES ABOVE 500 MB THUS REMOVING SOME
SUPPORT FOR EVENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT QUALIFY AS THE ELEVATED CATEGORY OF
HIGH...THUS TO PREVENT CONFUSION DECIDED TO ELIMINATE HEADLINE
AFTER MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARNING HEADLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REMAINING OVER THE GULF
WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED UPPER LOW ROTATING WITHIN THE SHORTWAVE.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES NEAR
STATIONARY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ITS MOST PERSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN
PERFORMANCE AND BEST HANDLING OF THE SURFACE LOW. AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHER POPS...LEAVING THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE GENERALLY DRY. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND MAINTAIN STRONG NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THEREFORE...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN WITH STRONG WINDS HEADLINE FOR SKAGWAY
AREA EXTENDED INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.

 MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
AND AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ALASKAN INTERIOR. WITH
GROWING UNCERTAINTY...LEANED OVER THE NEW HPC ENSEMBLE APPROACH
BLENDED INTO THE PREVIOUS GRIDS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS HINTING ANOTHER STORM MAY MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST DOMAIN BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IS TOO BIG TO INVITE THE
SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. YET THE PERSISTING ARCTIC AIR
WILL HOLD SOUTHEAST ALASKA A COLDER SIDE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM AKST MONDAY FOR
     AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-031-033>035-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032-036-041-042-052-053.

&&

JWA/AHN