Gale Warning 377, NWS Juneau, AK

951 
FZAK51 PAJK 140455 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
755 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-142300-
755 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT THEN
OVER THE AK PANHANDLE BY WED. OUTLOOK. A GALE FORCE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF THU.  

$$

PKZ011-142300-
GLACIER BAY-
755 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-142300-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
755 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-142300-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
755 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-142300-
ICY STRAIT-
755 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-142300-
CROSS SOUND-
755 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-142300-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
755 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-142300-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
755 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS TO 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-142300-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
755 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
5 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-142300-
FREDERICK SOUND-
755 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-142300-
SUMNER STRAIT-
755 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-142300-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
755 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

768 
FZAK51 PAJK 141227
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-150100-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A GALE FORCE LOW MOVING INTO 
THE WESTERN GULF...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AK PANHANDLE THROUGH THU
MORNING. THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE 
GULF THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AK INTERIOR 
AND YUKON LATE WED NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE S THROUGH FRI.

$$

PKZ011-150100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-150100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-150100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-150100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN
RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-150100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 2O KT BECOMING E AND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-150100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-150100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN
RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-150100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-150100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN
THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.THU...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-150100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN
RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-150100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG IN 
THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
347 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX HAS CAUSED SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE JUNEAU AREA. ABOUT 3 INCHES WAS
MEASURED AT THE FORECAST OFFICE. THE SNOW WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. PRECIP FROM THE NEXT FRONT AND INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT FOR THE
INLAND AREAS OF THE JUNEAU ZONE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. IMPACTS
FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE FELT MORE DUE TO THE SNOW ALREADY RECEIVED
TODAY AND WILL MAKE TRAVEL AND SNOWFALL REMOVAL MORE DIFFICULT.
GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED AROUND PEAK COMMUTE TIME WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

 THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE 25-30 KT OVER
THE OUTSIDE WATERS TONIGHT. SNOW WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
YAKUTAT AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THE GREATEST LIFT
WITH THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE BEST SNOW GROWTH ZONE IN THE
MORNING...SO EXPECT THE LARGEST DENDRITES TO OCCUR THEN. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR YAKUTAT AS WELL WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION TOTAL. ALONG THE COAST THERE WILL BE MORE OF A
MIX...LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS THERE. BY THE AFTERNOON SNOW WILL
CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT.

 HAINES AND SKAGWAY WILL SEE SOME MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH THOUGH SO THIS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. OUT THE HIGHWAYS HOWEVER THERE COULD
BE A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH UP TO 3
INCHES AT WHITE PASS.

 ELSEWHERE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AS
THE FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL THROUGH
ALL OF THE INSIDE WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON AND TO GALE FORCE FOR
CLARENCE STRAIT NEAR LINCOLN ROCK.

 USED MAINLY THE NAM12 FOR UPDATES TODAY. BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE WAS QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND THE FREEZING POINT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...FOR THE START OF THE LONG RANGE WARM FRONT OVER THE
PANHANDLE WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A MORE DIURNAL TREND
AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL
STILL SEE RAIN AREAS NORTH OF ICY STRAIT WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SNOW. FOR NOW NOT EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATION MUCH MORE THAN AN
INCH TO TWO INCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

 THE 968 MB BERING SEA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
TRACK OVER THE ALEUTIANS MOVING JUST SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW CENTER AROUND 990 MB BY 18Z THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DEEPENING TO AROUND 983 MB
THEN BECOME QUASI STATIONARY IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY FRIDAY.
WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 15 TO 18 FT. AS THE LOW
MOVES IN AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE YUKON THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH PASSING FRONTS WILL
INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE INNER CHANNELS.
WITH INDICATION OF THE LOW WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

 PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IS A BIT TRICKY. WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING AND THE ARCTIC AIR FLOW FROM THE
YUKON EXPECTING TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO DROP TO
THE 20S TO TO 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW IN THE
LOW 30S. THIS WOULD INDICATE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN BUT 850 MB TEMPS
FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE ONLY DROP TO -4C FRIDAY WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESS ONLY DOWN TO 5275 TO 5300. THESE VALUES INDICATE A MIXED
PRECIP WITH MORE SNOW UNDER HEAVIER PRECIP BANDS. BY THE WEEKEND
IF THE GALE FORCE LOW DOES DROP SOUTH WILL SEE A DRYING TREND FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH JUST NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. BUT MODEL RUNS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRACK.

 FOR THE START OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
NAM BECOME MORE OF AN OUTLIER BY THURSDAY WITH THE POSITION OF THE
GULF LOW BIT TOO FAR SOUTH WHILE UKMET WAS A BIT TOO WEAK. GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON WHILE MODEL RUN YOU CHECK
BY THEN THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TRACK SOUTH NEARING HAIDA
GWAII BY LATE SATURDAY...WEAKEN BUT THEN REFORM AND MOVE BACK INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF SUNDAY...OR REFORM AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. WHILE THE ECMWF HAD BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN THE GFS NOW TAKES THAT TITLE. USED A BLEND
OF 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH DAY 4 THEN TRANSITIONED TO A BLEND OF NEW
HPC/GFS/ECMWF AND INHERITED GRIDS THROUGH DAY 8. WHILE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS BEEN CONSISTENT THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON NORTHERLY
EXTENT OF PRECIP...AND STRENGTH AND DIRECTION OF WINDS IN THE GULF
AND INNER CHANNELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM BUT DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AKZ025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON AKST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-041>043-051-
     052.

&&

HANNON/PRB