Gale Warning 369, NWS Juneau, AK

379 
FZAK51 PAJK 061806 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
906 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-070100-
906 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE N GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE THROUGH
WED. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE W GULF WED.  

$$

PKZ011-070100-
GLACIER BAY-
906 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY LATE. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-070100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
906 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-070100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
906 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-070100-
ICY STRAIT-
906 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-070100-
CROSS SOUND-
906 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-070100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
906 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

UPDATED

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT
LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-070100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
906 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

UPDATED

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-070100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
906 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-070100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
906 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...NE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-070100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
906 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-070100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
906 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
219 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SE AK WILL DRIFT E OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP S OF THE GULF AND MOVE
NE TO THE SE GULF TUE. A LOW OVER THE NW GULF WILL DRIFT SLOWLY S
TO THE SW GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON. LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS
OVER THE YUKON WILL BE SPREADING SWD INTO THE FAR N LATE TUE
AFTERNOON. USED THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT HAD BEST FIT TO THE MAIN
SYSTEMS THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HRS.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL. RIGHT
NOW...A FAIRLY STRONG S PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SCA LEVEL WINDS...WITH GALES OVER
NRN LYNN CANAL. DO EXPECT THESE WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT
AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH ONLY SCA LEVEL WINDS LEFT OVER THE
FAR SERN INNER CHANNEL AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP PAGY IN A
STRONG WIND HEADLINE UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO FAVOR MORE ELY WINDS BY LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. AS LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SE GULF TUE...THE
GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL SHIFT FURTHER TO FAVOR MORE NE
FLOW...WITH A TIGHTER N GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR N LATE
TUE AS LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. SCA LEVEL SE
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE FAR SE INNER CHANNELS WITH NRN
LYNN CANAL COMING UP TO SCA NLY WIND LATE TUE AFTERNOON. OVER THE
GULF...THE SCA LEVEL SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND START
BACKING TO A MORE S-SE DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 8 FT SO SCA WILL CONTINUE DUE TO SEAS THRU TUE.

 AS FOR PRECIP...MUCH OF THE AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO SHOWERS.
ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND THE PAYA AREA WWD...AND THEY SHOULD
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS BY EARLY EVENING. RADAR SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
SHOWER COVERAGE SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE...EXCEPT WILL
LIMIT PAGY TO CHANCE LEVELS. THE PAYA AREA WILL SEE THEIR SHOWERS
DIMINISH LATER TUE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ELY. AS LOW
MOVES IN FOR TUE...PRECIP CHARACTER MAY TRY TO BECOME MORE STEADY
STATE BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 50-100 J/KG OF POSITIVE CAPE
VALUES... SUGGESTING THAT SHOWERS WOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER PRECIP SHIELD SO WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER TERMINOLOGY TUE FOR
SIMPLICITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS IN THE WORKS FOR THE LONG TERM
ONCE THE SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE DIMINISH AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD
HIGH BUILDS IN THE YUKON ON TUES NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA TUES NIGHT AND EARLY WED AS THE LOW IN THE
GULF SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TO THE SE. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE LOW
EVENTUALLY BECOMING AN INVERTED TROUGH BY WED EVENING SETTING UP
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE WHOLE AREA. COLD OUTFLOW WINDS WILL START
UP OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUES NIGHT AS A 1035 MB HIGH BUILDS
IN THE YUKON. I AM EXPECTING GALES FOR LYNN CANAL AND SMALL CRAFT
WINDS FOR MOST OF THE OTHER NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WED INTO THURS
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SPREADS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. WITH THESE
WINDS AND THE COLD AIR FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE FOR LYNN CANAL
AND GLACIER BAY AT THE SAME TIME.

ALSO A POSSIBILITY IS A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU
AND DOUGLAS TUES EVENING INTO THURS AFTERNOON. CROSS BARRIER FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE WITH A GOOD INVERSION
AND A DECENT LOOKING CRITICAL LEVEL. I AM EXPECTING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLY UP INTO STRONG WIND CRITERIA DURING THAT TIME.

THIS COLDER CLEARER DRYER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG HOWEVER.
CLOUDS WILL START ENCROACHING INTO THE AREA BY SAT AS THE NEXT
FRONT BEGINS ITS ADVANCE ON THE AREA. STILL SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE IT THOUGH. EC HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING
ON WHERE TO TAKE MOST OF THE ENERGY. 0Z RUN HAD THE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH AND UNDERCUTTING THE AREA. NEW 12Z RUN HAS GONE TOWARD THE
GFS WITH THE LOW WANDERING AROUND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE SUNDAY. DECIDED ON GOING TOWARD THE 0Z EC AS THAT WAS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLES AND HPC. IN ANY CASE SNOW AND RAIN
AND SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY
SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

RWT/EAL