Gale Warning 347, NWS Juneau, AK

003 
FZAK67 PAJK 101246
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-110100-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH SUN. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF SAT THEN DISSIPATE OVER SE AK SUN. 

$$

PKZ310-110100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
345 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE RUNNING
PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE GULF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY
MORNING ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE. A LOW
FORMING ON THE FRONTAL BAND WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTH
TO JUST OFF KODIAK ISLAND BY MORNING AND THEN THAT LOW WITHE
PARENT LOW NEAR COLD BAY WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE ABOUT EACH OTHER AS
THE OLD PARENT LOW ACCELERATES INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

 A LEADING TROF WILL FALL APART OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF FRIDAY
EVENING AND THE NORTH SOUTH FRONTAL BAND IS ACTING AS WARM FRONT
TRYING TO SWEEP THE COLDER AIR FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF
WAY USHERING IN WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH.

 DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THIS BAND WILL HAVE SPREAD EASTWARD TO
LIE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE. AM EXPECTING 30 TO
35 KT WINDS IN THE MARINE AREA GENERALLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
EXPECT THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START THIS EVENING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND THEN TO SPREAD TO COASTAL AREAS OR INTO
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THINK THAT THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.

 DID BUMP THE WINDS FOR ICY STRAIT AND CROSS SOUND UP TO SMALL
CRAFT FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT INCREASE. LYNN
CANAL HAS SUBSIDED TO 20 KT AND WILL NOT BE INCREASING THEM AT
THIS MOMENT AS I THINK THAT THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT LATER THIS
EVENING.

 ONLY HAVE 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE YAKUTAT AREA FOR TONIGHT...
PARTIALLY IN HOPES AND FEAR THAT THEY WILL OR WILL NOT MIX WITH
RAIN. THUS WILL MONITOR THAT AREA...OTHER REGION WITH POSSIBLE
SNOW SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE HAINES AREA. EXPECT THAT NORTH OF
THE CITY IN THE RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE ROAD WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE LONG RANGE WILL
BE A FRONT MOVING FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE
PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BEGIN AS SNOW FROM JUNEAU NORTHWARD. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
RAPIDLY RAISE THE SNOW LEVEL OVERNIGHT AND CHANGE MOST AREAS TO
ALL LIQUID BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE SKAGWAY AND HAINES ZONES WHERE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THESE LOCATIONS WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SNOWFALL EXPECTED.

AS FAR AS WINDS WITH THIS FRONT...AM EXPECTING A 40 KT BARRIER
JET TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE 30
TO 35 KT SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EAST-WEST
CHANNELS AND CLARENCE STRAIT. CROSS SOUND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A 4-5 MB PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING BETWEEN JUNEAU AND SITKA. PARALLEL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED CHANNELS WILL
KEEP WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 KTS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
LAND LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONTO THE COAST.

COLDER AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION STEADY RAIN TO
PERIODS OF RAIN LATER SUNDAY. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS
PERSISTING OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION
WILL DECREASE TO CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS A FLAT WEAK RIDGE PUSHES
ACROSS THE GULF AND OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ALEUTIANS DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE NEXT WEEK...PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW OF A MARINE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY RAIN WITH
SNOW POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
SUBSTANTIALLY ON WHERE IT GOES AFTER THAT.

CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/EC IN THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
LONG RANGE BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO HPC WHICH WAS HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY THE EC. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DECREASING WITH THE LOW ENTERING THE
GULF THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-033-036-041-042.

&&

BEZENEK/TPS