Gale Warning 346, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
348 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...WEATHER OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY IS RATHER QUIET
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE RULE. THE EXCEPTION IS YAKUTAT WHERE
A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS MOVED IN. THE CLEAR SKIES DID CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING THAT ARE STILL LINGERING
EVEN NOW IN CERTAIN AREAS. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS
THE CONTINUING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THEY
ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY WITH ELDRED ROCK ONLY
BLOWING ABOUT 25 TO 30 KT COMPARED TO THE 40 TO 45 KT IT WAS
SHOWING YESTERDAY.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND SMALL CRAFT LEVELS IN LYNN CANAL
MOST OF THE TIME WITH LOWER WIND MAGNITUDES ELSEWHERE. AS THE HIGH
IN THE YUKON PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX
AND EVEN START TO REVERSE FRI AFTERNOON AS WE START GETTING
INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT FRONT STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF.

SPEAKING OF WHICH, THE CLEAR WEATHER THAT WE ARE ENJOYING TODAY
WILL NOT LAST. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE STARTING TO
SPREAD OVER THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AREAS
EAST OF JUNEAU, ANGOON AND CAPE DECISION SHOULD STILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WEST OF AND
INCLUDING THAT LINE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOWING UP BY
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED YET FOR THE MAIN PART OF THE
PANHANDLE BUT YAKUTAT IS IN THE RUNNING FOR SOME PRECIP TO START
UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL TYPE FEATURE
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. SO HAVE PUT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND YAKUTAT. THE COLDER AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE
WILL MEAN THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. FORTUNATELY, PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IF IT
OCCURS AT ALL, SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT. NO REALLY
HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST FEATURES GETTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF TOMORROW BUT A MIN GALE FORCE BARRIER JET IS
EXPECTED AROUND CAPE SUCKLING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FEATURE
MOVES NORTH.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A FEW
DIFFERENCES NOTED. MAINLY USED THE NAM AND EC FOR UPDATES TODAY AS
BOTH ARE STILL DOING RATHER WELL DEPICTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND NAM SEEMS TO BE CATCHING THE BARRIER
JET NEAR CAPE SUCKLING RATHER WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT
AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EASTWARD WITH A SLOW MOVING NORTH SOUTH FRONTAL BAND IS
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE ASSOCIATED LOW IS
ALONG ALASKA PENINSULA. A FEW MORE LOWS ARE LOCATED FURTHER WEST.
THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BE LEADING THE WAY FOR THE
FEATURE THAT WILL BE IMPACTED THE PANHANDLE AREA END OF NEXT WEEK.

THE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE SLOWLY WEAKENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK.

AM NOT REALLY ADJUSTING THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION... LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND BY SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE. MAX SMALL CRAFT TO PERHAPS
A FEW MIN GALE IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AVERAGE OR
BELOW FOR LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHERE I WENT MORE WITH HPC
SOLUTION.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-051.

&&

EAL/BEZENEK