Gale Warning 339, NWS Juneau, AK

481 
FZAK51 PAJK 271136
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-280100-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-280100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-280100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-280100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-280100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-280100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-280100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-280100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-280100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-280100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-280100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-280100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE LONG DRY BREAK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS COVERING NORTHWEST CANADA FLOWS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. HOWEVER, A CLOUDMASS FROM
A WEAK OCCLUSION IN THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS PROVIDED A CLOUD COVER
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. FOR MORE ABOUT THE PATTERN CHANGE
FROM OUR OUR DRY BREAK TO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, PLEASE SEE THE LONG RANGE SECTION BELOW. CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

 A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AS WELL
AS DOUGLAS, WITH SURFACE WINDS REACHING 60 MPH BEGINNING LATE
THIS EVENING.

 THE GALE NORTHERLY FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL SPREAD TO
INCLUDE SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL TONIGHT.

 THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE NAM MODEL ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
TAKU MOUNTAIN WAVE INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO THAT 60 MPH
GUSTS WILL BEGIN IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. SUCH WINDS WILL
BE PERSISTENT AND ROUTINELY OCCURRING INTO THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST SO PLEASE SEE THAT SECTION BELOW.

 MODELS: THEIR CONSENSUS IS IMPROVING, ALBEIT THE NAM WAS STILL
EMPHASIZED DUE TO GOOD INITIALIZATION FOR OUR THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. THEY NOW SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP THE
MAIN FRONTAL BAND SUPPRESSED OVER THE FAR SOUTH AREA SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT AT LEAST. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGGING S INTO
THE SE GULF IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR SUN...AND THIS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD PRECIP FURTHER N OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA. BASED ON A
NAM/EC BLEND...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PRECIP THREAT WILL BE OVER
ZONES 28 AND 29 SUN NIGHT INTO MON. PTYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES...EXCEPT
FOR HYDER WHERE PRECIP MAY END UP AS ALL SNOW. THEY COULD GET A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW OUT OF THIS IF THE NAM AND EC ARE CORRECT.
EVENTUALLY THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST AND TAKES PRECIP WITH IT MON
NIGHT.

 LOCALLY...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREAS AS IT IS LOOKING VERY LIKELY
THAT TAKU WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THERE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AT
LEAST. LOOKS LIKE AN EXCELLENT SETUP WITH INCREASING CROSS
BARRIER FLOW TO 40+KT...A FLOW REVERSAL ALOFT...AND A WELL PLACED
INVERSION NEAR THE 900 MB LEVEL. HAVE THE WARNING OUT TO 15Z SUN
RIGHT NOW...BUT THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS THE STRONGER WINDS COULD
LAST LONGER...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

 FURTHER OUT...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR WEST A LOW DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE GULF. 00Z GFS KEPT
LOW CLOSER TO THE KENAI PEN WHILE THE EC TAKES IT CLOSER TO THE
NE GULF DURING TUE-WED PERIOD. ATTM...ENDED UP USING HPC FOR MON
TO THU PERIOD BUT DID ADJUST WINDS SOME OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO
BRING IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW MAINLY FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE LEVELS TUE-THU OVER THE LAND AREAS. MAY BE
A LARGER LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF LATER THU INTO FRI THAT MAY
BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP THEN. THE DAILY MAX AND MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE TUE-FRI PERIOD AS
LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SELY WITH TIME.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM AKDT SUNDAY
     FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031-034-035-043.

&&

JBT/RWT