Gale Warning 336, NWS Juneau, AK

924 
FZAK52 PAJK 222329
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-231400-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WED WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. 

$$

PKZ041-231400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-231400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-231400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-231400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-231400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
557 AM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

.SHORT TERM...ALOFT A LOW STILL RESTS OFFSHORE OF THE BC COAST
AND A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE BERING SEA. THE
RIDGE TILTS NEGATIVELY AND THUS IMPLIES A MORE STABLE PATTERN FOR
THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SOMEWHAT
ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CLEARER SKIES
HAS SOLIDIFIED OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA. A 1002 MB LOW CONTINUES
TO LIE OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA. THE
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEALTHY
NORTH TO EAST OUTFLOW WINDS FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
GAPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH DRY AND COOL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE...PRECIPITATION
AND SKY COVER CONTINUE TO YIELD TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AS THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
OVERALL PATTERN AS SUNDAY MOS VALUES WERE DE- EMPHASIZED AS A
LITTLE CHILLY AND PERSISTENCE FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WAS
FAVORED AS A BETTER INDICATOR OF BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES.
AS A RESULT GENERALLY WARMED TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE NORTHWARD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED FOR THE PASSES.
REGARDING WINDS, FEEL CONFIDENT OF PATTERN PRODUCING SOME OUTFLOW
WINDS AT TIMES...BUT TIMING OF PEAKS AND LULLS FROM MODELS WERE
MOSTLY DISREGARDED IN FAVOR OF A GENERAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF
GREATER WINDS DURING THE DAY AND WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS ARE STILL ON THE STRONGER SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INSIDE
CHANNELS WITH NORTHERN LYNN REMAINING AT GALE FORCE THROUGH
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...STEVENS PASSAGE AND CLARENCE STRAIT RE-
INCREASE AS THE NORTHWEST CANADA HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. IN
ADDITION JUNEAU AIRPORT CAN STILL EXPECT WIND SHEAR AT 2000 FT
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST OF AROUND 40 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. KEPT
MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION EVEN THOUGH
SKAGWAY REGISTERING CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING AND IR IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE WEST FROM NORTHERN
BC OVER THE COASTAL RANGE. IF CLOUDS REACH THE PANHANDLE...THEY
SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE.

SINCE MAIN MODELS TENDED TO INITIALIZE THE PRINCIPAL FEATURES
FAIRLY WELL...TENDED TOWARDS THE NAM FOR BETTER TERRAIN HANDLING
AND SOME NUDGING TO WRF ALONG THE INSIDE PASSAGES FOR INCREASING
WIND SPEED. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST EXCELLENT.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF WIND SPEED ACCELERATIONS THAT
MOS AND MODELS PREDICTING NOT NEARLY AS GOOD AND THUS HAVE
SMOOTHED DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURE CONFIDENCE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE LONG DRY BREAK WILL CONTINUE AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
COVERING NORTHWEST CANADA FLOWS THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA TO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SMALL.
THE CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

LARGE-SCALE ACCORDING TO THE GFS FIVE-WAVE: 500H RIDGE EXTENDS
N OVER ADAK AND TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. 500H TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
POLE TO OVER GREAT BEAR LAKE AND EXTENDING TO THE SSW OVER CAPE
SAINT JAMES.

THE GFS FIVE WAVE SHOWS THE FOLLOWING TRENDS:  THE 500H RIDGE HAS
LITTLE CHANGE THAT WILL MATTER FOR OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SAT. THE 500H TROUGH HOWEVER, WILL BE ALTERED
WITH TIME BY THE VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT THE FIVE WAVE MODEL FILTERS
OUT. THE FIRST OF THESE MAXIMA, AT 500H WILL BE ABOUT 300 NM SSE
OF SHEMYA AT 00Z TUE, REACH 800 NM S OF COLD BAY AT 00Z FRI, AND
WILL BECOME IMPORTANT FOR HOW AN OVERRUN OF OUR ARCTIC AIRMASS
BEGINS TO BE OVERRUN NEXT WEEKEND. THE SECOND OF THESE MAXIMA IS
ABOUT 300 NM S OF KETCHIKAN AT THIS TIME, AND THE LOCATION WILL
MATTER FOR AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE PANHANDLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL ABOVE AVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS ON THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SAT.
HAVING SAID THAT, WE DO FIND INCREASING DIFFICULTY AS WE EXAMINE
ON PROGRESSIVELY SMALLER SCALES. FIRST, THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
VARY IN LOCATION. SECOND, THERE WILL BE VARIATIONS IN THE STRENGTH
OF N TO NE FLOW ALONG PANHANDLE. THIRD WILL BE MOUNTAIN WAVE
CONSIDERATIONS. THE MODELS WILL TEND TO HELP MORE WITH THE SMALL
SCALE FEATURES AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENTS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-036-043.

&&

JWA/PRB JBT