Gale Warning 326, NWS Juneau, AK

038 
FZAK51 PAJK 150238 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
638 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-151500-
638 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STRONG GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE SE GULF WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS
CENTRAL SE ALASKA AND WEAKEN SUN EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER
THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE NE ACROSS SOUTHERN HAIDA GWAII LATE MON
AFTERNOON...THEN INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-151500-
GLACIER BAY-
638 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING
TO 4 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN
THE EVENING. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-151500-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
638 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING
TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN LATE.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-151500-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
638 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING
TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-151500-
ICY STRAIT-
638 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-151500-
CROSS SOUND-
638 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-151500-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
638 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE EVENING AND INCREASING TO
25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-151500-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
638 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE EVENING AND INCREASING TO
25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-151500-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
638 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-151500-
FREDERICK SOUND-
638 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-151500-
SUMNER STRAIT-
638 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE.
SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-151500-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
638 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO
6 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
204 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE FAR SE GULF WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE NNE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. A TROF
WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF MON. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE NE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HAIDA GWAII MON AFTERNOON. USED THE 12Z GFS FOR THE
TONIGHT AND MON PERIODS...MAINLY FOR THE WAY IT HANDLED THE MON
LOW.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL. RIGHT
NOW STRONGEST WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND WRAP OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT AROUND THE SE GULF LOW. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRONG
GALE FORCE WITH THAT FEATURE. AM KEEPING IN THE STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONES 27 AND 28...BUT AM DROPPING THEM FOR 23 AND
26 AS THE WINDS IN THOSE AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT GET HIGH ENOUGH.
AS THE LOW LIFTS NNE AND WEAKENS...EXPECT THE WINDS ON THE S SIDE
OF THE LOW TO BEGIN WEAKENING THIS EVENING...BUT A BURST OF S-SW
SCA LEVEL WINDS SHOULD STILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE NRN AND
CENTRAL INNER CHANNEL AREAS LATER TONIGHT ONCE LOW MOVES PAST THE
AREA AND RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THESE WINDS WILL NOT LAST TOO
LONG HOWEVER...AS APPROACH OF THE TROF FROM THE W AND LOW FROM
THE SW WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS EARLY MON THEN
TRY TO FLIP THE GRADIENT LATER MON TO FAVORING MORE NLY AND ELY
FLOW. THE TROF WILL CAUSE A NARROW BAND OF SCA LEVEL SELY WINDS
OVER THE NERN GULF AROUND MIDDAY MON BEFORE WEAKENING SOME IN THE
AFTERNOON.

 AS FOR PRECIP...RAIN WITH THE INITIAL OCCLUDED FRONT WILL FALL
APART OVER THE N EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MORE PRECIP WITH THE
WEAKENING LOW SHOULD FILL IN BEHIND IT LATER THIS EVENING. THE
SRN AREAS WILL SEE THEIR PRECIP DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BUT THEY
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME ON AND OFF RAIN THERE LATER
TONIGHT. THEN AS NEXT LOW MOVES TOWARD HAIDA GWAII AND THE TROF
MOVES INTO THE ERN GULF...MORE PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
MAIN PANHANDLE AREA DURING THE DAY MON. MEANWHILE THE PAYA AREA
WILL SEE THEIR RAIN MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING THEN PRECIP SHOULD
BECOME SHOWERY LATE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THERE
MON WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT MON AFTERNOON AS THAT TROF MOVES INTO
THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH ENHANCEMENT FOR ANY TSTMS.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL IN THE WORKS
FOR THE PANHANDLE FOR THE COMING WEEK. THE CAUSE IS A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH SITUATED FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. WITH US ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF IT MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
THE MAIN RULE WITH A FEW VIGOROUS SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

 FEATURE OF MAIN CONCERN IS A SYSTEM THAT IS COMING FOR WED INTO
WED NIGHT. THE MID RANGE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT
AT ALL. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AT LEAST 6 HOURS FASTER THEN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODELS ARE DEBATING WHERE TO TAKE THE
LOW. NAM IS BY FAR THE FASTEST AT A GOOD 12 HOURS AHEAD OF THE 0Z
ECMWF SOLUTION. IT IS ALSO THE FARTHEST NORTH TAKING IT UP TOWARD
YAKUTAT BAY. THE 0Z ECMWF IS TAKING IT IN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CAPE
SPENCER AND CAPE EDGECOMBE WHILE THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS GONE WITH
A TRACK INTO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. THE CURRENT GFS IS EVEN
SLOWER, ABOUT 6 HOURS BEHIND THE 0Z ECMWF, AND MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH, LOW COMES IN AROUND HAIDA GWAII. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS
SHOWING A MUCH DIFFERENT PICTURE THAN YESTERDAY WHERE IT WAS
DEPICTING SOMETHING MUCH MORE LIKE THE NAM. AS FAR AS THE OTHER
MODELS, GEM GLOBAL LENDS THE GFS SOME SUPPORT WHILE THE LONG
RANGE UKMET FAVORS THE 0Z ECMWF. DECIDED ON USING THE 0Z EC FOR
UPDATES IN THE WED TO THURS PERIOD TO SPEED UP THE SYSTEM A BIT
BUT STILL KEEP THE IDEA OF THE NORTHWARD CURVE OF THE SYSTEM
TRACK TO NEAR SITKA.

 WITH THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES, WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN WITH
THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL HAS
STRONG WINDS AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE ON WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES, BUT
IF THE SOUTHWARD TREND SEEN IN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUES IT
WILL BE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THAT MAY SEE MOST OF IT AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE LESS. ALSO IF THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TREND PROVES CORRECT THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WARM AIR
BEING FUNNELED INTO THE PANHANDLE AND MORE AREAS IN THE NORTH MAY
SEE SNOW EARLY THURS IN THE EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW.
FUTURE MODELS RUNS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE WHICH DIRECTION
THE LOW WILL TAKE.

 THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SOMEWHAT QUIET WITH STEADY
ONSHORE SW FLOW WITH RAIN IN THE PANHANDLE BEFORE THE WED LOW AND
THE SLOW DRIFT SE OF THE NORTHERN GULF LOW AFTER THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. COMPLICATING THIS A BIT IS THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR THAT IS BEING DRAWN SOUTH AND EAST BY THE NORTHERN GULF
LOW. WHICH WILL REACH THE PANHANDLE ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS THE
MID WEEK STORM. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONSEQUENTLY FALL, AND MAY REACH
SEA LEVEL DURING THE NIGHT IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
AFTER WED.

 MODELS AGREEMENT, EXCEPT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM, WAS DECENT
WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES REPRESENTED FAIRLY WELL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE STORM MID WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027-028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-043-051-052.

&&

RWT/EAL